North Texas @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Fri, Dec 5, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Tulane

Weather at kickoff52°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

North Texas

11-1 · Power #38

final

Final

Tulane

10-2 · Power #57

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNT -1.5

✓ TULN W

Total

66.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 33–31 TULN

✗ UNT (56%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNT -3

CloseUNT -1.5

Total64.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -3

1.5 → TULN

CloseUNT -1.5

1.5 pts toward Tulane

Total

Open64.5

▲ 2

Close66.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -3 · closed UNT -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward TULNmodel UNT -4

model UNT -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (168 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 60% (35 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNT -3

CloseUNT -1.5

Total64.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 1.5-point road favorite at TULN, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 34–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 66.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 6.1 against an average line of 3; 73.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WAKE @ LOU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	21–48	L	O66.25
Close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	29–28	L	U58
Close	ECU @ UTSA 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	24–58	L	O62.5
Close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Close	WAKE @ DUKE 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-3	31–34	L	U67.5
Close	COLO @ KU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	21–37	L	U59.5
Close	GT @ UNC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	41–34	W	O60.5
Close	UNLV @ ORST 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	33–25	W	U61.5
Close	OU @ TTU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-1.5	48–51	L	O65.5
Close	GT @ NCSU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	36–48	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WWWWW	10-2	83%	4-1	10-2
TULN LWLWL	6-6	50%	3-3	2-1

Venue/role: UNT away, as favorite; TULN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT OUOOO	9-3	75%	11-1
TULN OOUUU	4-8	33%	10-2

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 41% of games with totals 62.5–70.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	9-1 90%	9-1 90%	8-2 80%
TULN	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UNT 0–2 TULN TULN leads · 2 games since 2023 · TULN has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Tulane 45 @ North Texas 37	TULN -7.5	TULN W
Oct 21 2023	North Texas 28 @ Tulane 35	TULN -20	UNT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−6.2 →+8.7▲ 14.9#32

TULN+5.1 →+2.9▼ 2.2#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

UNT

Longer bar = better

TULN

Offense

◀ UNT better

#40

#63

Defense

Even

#67

+1.1 #5

Turnovers

◀ UNT better

+0.4 #39

69 plays #45

Pace

◀ UNT faster

66 plays #75

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	46.8 #1	22.8 #52	UNT
Yards / play	7.43 #2	5.43 #58	UNT
PPA / play	+0.37 #2	+0.07 #60	UNT
Success rate	52% #4	44% #99	UNT

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #62	24.2 #66	Even
Yards / play	6.28 #30	5.32 #48	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #31	+0.04 #47	Even
Success rate	46% #36	44% #92	TULN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	12.4 #3	13.3 #4	25.7 #1	11.3 #3	8.8 #28	20.0 #6
TULN allowed	5.1 #58	5.8 #28	10.9 #40	3.1 #17	8.8 #122	11.8 #62

TULN scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	8.0 #27	10.3 #32	18.3 #22	4.2 #106	6.3 #76	10.4 #104
UNT allowed	5.2 #61	5.8 #27	10.9 #40	7.3 #114	5.8 #47	13.0 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.