Temple @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Fri, Nov 28, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at North Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Temple

5-6 · Power #96

final

Final

North Texas

10-1 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNT -20.5

✓ UNT W

Total

65.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

TEM 21–42 UNT

✓ UNT (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -19.5

CloseUNT -20.5

Total64.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -19.5

1 → UNT

CloseUNT -20.5

1 pt toward North Texas

Total

Open64.5

▲ 1

Close65.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -19.5 · closed UNT -20.5 · moved 1 toward UNTmodel UNT -21.5

model UNT -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 49% (94 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (264 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -19.5

CloseUNT -20.5

Total64.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 20.5-point home favorite against TEM, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 52–25; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 65.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.8 against an average line of 20.6; 61.6 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS vs NEV 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-23.5	28–21	L	U61.5
Very close	USC vs CAL 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21	41–35	L	O61
Close	UNC vs GT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-21.25	17–21	L	U63
Close	WAKE vs ARMY 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-16	45–10	W	U65.5
Close	ORE vs STAN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	45–27	W	O63
Close	KSU vs HOU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & rest	-17.5	41–0	W	U60.5
Close	UNLV vs SDSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-21.5	41–20	L	O55
Close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Close	TXST vs GAST 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-23	44–52	L	O59.5
Close	USF vs FAU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-20.5	48–13	W	U72.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEM WLLWL	7-4	64%	4-1	4-3
UNT WWWWW	9-2	82%	5-1	9-2

Venue/role: TEM away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEM OOOUU	7-4	64%	5-6
UNT OOUOO	8-3	73%	10-1

Went over in Q4. Of 105 earlier overs in games with totals 61.5–69.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEM	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
UNT	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TEM 0–2 UNT UNT leads · 2 games since 2023 · UNT has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	North Texas 24 @ Temple 17	UNT -10.5	TEM W
Oct 14 2023	Temple 14 @ North Texas 45	UNT -6.5	UNT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEM−16.1 →−8.4▲ 7.7#96

UNT−6.2 →+8.1▲ 14.3#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

TEM

Longer bar = better

UNT

#54

Offense

UNT better ▶

#102

Defense

UNT better ▶

#67

+0.9 #11

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #2

62 plays #123

Pace

UNT faster ▶

69 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEM has the ball

Even matchup

	TEM off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #66	24.1 #64	Even
Yards / play	5.62 #72	5.40 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #34	+0.05 #50	Even
Success rate	45% #44	44% #95	TEM

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	TEM def	Edge
Points / game	46.3 #1	27.6 #91	UNT
Yards / play	7.27 #3	5.79 #93	UNT
PPA / play	+0.35 #3	+0.18 #112	UNT
Success rate	51% #6	45% #110	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TEM scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEM scored	6.0 #68	8.7 #68	14.7 #69	7.9 #29	4.8 #118	12.7 #62
UNT allowed	5.0 #60	6.3 #38	11.3 #46	7.3 #116	5.3 #36	12.5 #80

UNT scoring against the TEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	12.3 #3	12.5 #7	24.8 #3	11.4 #3	8.9 #28	20.3 #4
TEM allowed	8.2 #125	6.9 #56	15.1 #97	7.5 #121	4.5 #25	12.0 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.