North Texas @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Rice · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

North Texas

9-1 · Power #38

▲ winner

Final

Rice

5-5 · Power #126

final

Closing spread

UNT -18.5

✓ UNT W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 38–19 RICE

✓ UNT (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -17.5

CloseUNT -18.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -17.5

1 → UNT

CloseUNT -18.5

1 pt toward North Texas

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -17.5 · closed UNT -18.5 · moved 1 toward UNTmodel UNT -20.5

model UNT -20.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 16.5–20.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 41% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (263 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -17.5

CloseUNT -18.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as an 18.5-point road favorite at RICE, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 56–24; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Below normal · usually 89%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 17.8; 54.7 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU @ SDSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-17	29–26	L	U56.5
Very close	FSU @ STAN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-17.5	13–20	L	U55.5
Close	BOIS @ HAW 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-21	28–7	P	U60
Close	ODU @ ULM 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-16.5	31–6	W	U55.5
Close	APP @ TXST 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-19.5	24–36	L	O54.5
Close	MISS @ VAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	52–28	W	O59.5
Close	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5
Close	UL @ USM 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	23–13	L	U57.5
Close	ODU @ MRSH 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	24–48	L	O57.5
Close	LOU @ STAN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-21	35–38	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT LWWWW	8-2	80%	3-1	8-2
RICE LLWLW	5-5	50%	2-4	3-3

Venue/role: UNT away, as favorite; RICE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT OOOUO	7-3	70%	9-1
RICE UOOOU	6-4	60%	5-5

Went over in Q3. Of 512 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
RICE	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−6.2 →+7.0▲ 13.2#44

RICE−9.0 →−13.9▼ 4.9#123

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

UNT

Longer bar = better

RICE

Offense

◀ UNT better

#117

#64

Defense

Even

#68

+1.4 #1

Turnovers

◀ UNT better

−0.1 #89

71 plays #26

Pace

◀ UNT faster

67 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	45.3 #1	27.9 #92	UNT
Yards / play	6.93 #13	5.71 #79	UNT
PPA / play	+0.31 #6	+0.13 #84	UNT
Success rate	50% #9	37% #15	Even

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: UNT defense

	RICE off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	21.1 #114	24.1 #65	UNT
Yards / play	4.57 #134	5.40 #58	UNT
PPA / play	+0.05 #105	+0.03 #40	UNT
Success rate	38% #115	43% #91	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	12.8 #3	11.7 #16	24.5 #3	11.1 #3	8.4 #33	19.5 #7
RICE allowed	8.3 #127	8.4 #93	16.7 #113	5.6 #68	4.6 #29	10.2 #43

RICE scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	3.4 #125	7.6 #89	11.0 #107	3.4 #120	5.4 #104	8.8 #124
UNT allowed	4.1 #44	6.9 #57	11.0 #43	7.3 #116	5.5 #41	12.8 #85

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.