South Florida @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at UAB · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F9 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

7-3 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

UAB

3-7 · Power #119

final

Closing spread

USF -22.5

✓ USF W

Total

68.5

▼ Under · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 43–21 UAB

✓ USF (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -21.5

CloseUSF -22.5

Total69.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -21.5

1 → USF

CloseUSF -22.5

1 pt toward South Florida

Total

Open69.5

▼ 1

Close68.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -21.5 · closed USF -22.5 · moved 1 toward USFmodel USF -22

model USF -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 20.5–24.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 50% (42 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (254 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -21.5

CloseUSF -22.5

Total69.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 22.5-point road favorite at UAB, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 48–18; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 66 points stayed under 68.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 20.3 against an average line of 20.9; 67.5 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF @ USF 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-20	46–39	L	O67.5
Close	UNT @ UAB 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-17.5	53–24	W	O69
Close	CIN @ OKST 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-23.5	49–17	W	O57.5
Close	UNLV @ USU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-18.5	50–34	L	O67
Close	SMU @ USF 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	41–23	W	U72.5
Close	BOIS @ HAW 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	28–7	P	U60
Close	CLEM @ WAKE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	49–14	W	P63
Close	MEM @ UAB 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-23.5	24–31	L	U59.5
Close	UNT @ CLT 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-25.5	54–20	W	O60.5
Loose	BAY @ OKST 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-21	45–27	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF WWLWL	6-4	60%	2-3	3-3
UAB LWLLL	3-7	30%	1-4	3-5

Venue/role: USF away, as favorite; UAB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF OUOOO	7-3	70%	7-3
UAB OUUUO	5-5	50%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 44% of games with totals 64.5–72.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
UAB	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USF 3–2 UAB USF leads · 5 games since 2003 · USF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	UAB 25 @ South Florida 35	USF -14.5	UAB W
Oct 7 2023	South Florida 35 @ UAB 56	USF -3	UAB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−3.9 →+9.5▲ 13.4#27

UAB−11.1 →−13.6▼ 2.5#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

USF

Longer bar = better

UAB

#16

Offense

◀ USF better

#68

#50

Defense

◀ USF better

#133

+0.6 #24

Turnovers

◀ USF better

−1.1 #134

70 plays #32

Pace

◀ USF faster

68 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: USF offense

	USF off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	41.6 #5	38.7 #136	USF
Yards / play	7.03 #10	6.35 #127	USF
PPA / play	+0.25 #21	+0.30 #136	USF
Success rate	46% #29	49% #134	USF

When UAB has the ball

Even matchup

	UAB off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #74	25.9 #80	Even
Yards / play	6.02 #49	5.28 #51	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #84	+0.02 #35	USF
Success rate	43% #64	39% #34	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USF scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	7.8 #27	11.8 #13	19.6 #16	12.0 #2	10.0 #12	22.0 #1
UAB allowed	12.2 #136	11.3 #130	23.5 #136	9.2 #129	6.0 #55	15.2 #121

UAB scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	4.5 #100	9.6 #52	14.1 #75	7.1 #42	5.6 #95	12.7 #63
USF allowed	6.5 #96	6.8 #53	13.3 #77	3.0 #19	9.6 #126	12.6 #79

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.