South Florida @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Navy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

7-2 · Power #29

final

Final

Navy

7-2 · Power #64

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -8.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 35–26 NAVY

✗ USF (74%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -9.5

CloseUSF -8.5

Total63.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -9.5

1 → NAVY

CloseUSF -8.5

1 pt toward Navy

Total

Open63.5

▼ 1

Close62.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -9.5 · closed USF -8.5 · moved 1 toward NAVYmodel USF -11

model USF -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 53% (97 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (279 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -9.5

CloseUSF -8.5

Total63.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as an 8.5-point road favorite at NAVY, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 41–38 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 62.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 8.2; 53.5 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNLV @ SJSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	27–16	W	U59.5
Very close	UCF @ ECU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	13–34	L	U63
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	JMU @ GASO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	14–28	L	U58.5
Very close	UNLV @ ORST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	33–25	W	U61.5
Very close	TEX @ KU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-9	55–14	W	O63.5
Very close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	31–21	P	U59
Very close	OU @ OKST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	24–27	L	U62.5
Very close	SMU @ MEM 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	38–34	L	O64.5
Very close	TXST @ ODU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	14–24	L	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF LWWLW	6-3	67%	2-2	3-2
NAVY LLLLL	2-7	22%	1-4	0-2

Venue/role: USF away, as favorite; NAVY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF OOUOO	6-3	67%	7-2
NAVY OOOUO	7-2	78%	7-2

Went over in Q4. Of 208 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
NAVY	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USF 1–1 NAVY Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · NAVY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Navy 28 @ South Florida 7	NAVY -4.5	NAVY W
Sep 30 2023	South Florida 44 @ Navy 30	NAVY -3.5	USF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−3.9 →+10.1▲ 14.0#26

NAVY+1.2 →−2.0▼ 3.2#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

USF

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#16

Offense

Even

#17

#40

Defense

◀ USF better

#105

+0.8 #20

Turnovers

◀ USF better

+0.1 #61

70 plays #32

Pace

◀ USF faster

62 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: USF offense

	USF off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #5	26.8 #89	USF
Yards / play	6.92 #13	6.02 #110	USF
PPA / play	+0.26 #19	+0.19 #113	USF
Success rate	47% #28	44% #107	USF

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #47	24.2 #70	NAVY
Yards / play	7.14 #8	5.07 #34	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.31 #7	−0.01 #24	Even
Success rate	51% #6	39% #32	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USF scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	8.3 #23	12.4 #10	20.8 #10	12.6 #1	8.7 #29	21.2 #1
NAVY allowed	7.3 #109	6.7 #54	14.0 #81	5.8 #78	7.0 #82	12.8 #86

NAVY scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	6.6 #56	10.3 #39	16.9 #43	6.6 #58	8.6 #32	15.1 #38
USF allowed	5.7 #73	6.4 #46	12.1 #64	3.3 #21	8.8 #122	12.1 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.