Memphis @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at East Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Memphis

8-2 · Power #61

final

Final

East Carolina

6-3 · Power #51

▲ winner

Closing spread

ECU -2.5

✓ ECU W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 27–29 ECU

✓ ECU (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -2.5

CloseECU -2.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenECU -2.5

no move

CloseECU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open60.5

▼ 3

Close57.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ECU -2.5 · unchangedmodel ECU -2.5 matches the line

model ECU -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (298 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -2.5

CloseECU -2.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as a 2.5-point home favorite against MEM, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ECU won 31–27; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.2 against an average line of 3; 50 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT vs CAL 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	17–15	L	U57.5
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	45–28	W	O57.5
Very close	ASU vs UCF 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	35–31	W	O55.5
Very close	BOIS vs UNLV 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4	21–7	W	U57.5
Very close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	TTU vs BAY 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	17–45	L	O61
Very close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	28–21	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WLWWL	8-2	80%	4-1	2-0
ECU WLLWL	5-4	56%	2-3	4-2

Venue/role: MEM away, as underdog; ECU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UUOOO	5-5	50%	8-2
ECU UUOOO	4-5	44%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 462 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
ECU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MEM 9–18 ECU ECU leads · 27 games since 1990 · MEM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+2.2 →+4.3▲ 2.1#50

ECU−5.0 →+3.9▲ 8.9#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MEM

Longer bar = better

ECU

#19

Offense

◀ MEM better

#40

#59

Defense

ECU better ▶

#21

+0.8 #18

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #27

67 plays #61

Pace

ECU faster ▶

80 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Even matchup

	MEM off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	37.1 #15	17.3 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.40 #28	5.00 #31	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #14	−0.02 #22	Even
Success rate	48% #20	36% #14	Even

When ECU has the ball

Even matchup

	ECU off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	33.9 #25	21.1 #35	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #57	5.49 #69	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #47	+0.11 #80	ECU
Success rate	47% #29	40% #51	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	9.0 #15	11.4 #19	20.4 #13	6.3 #58	10.4 #7	16.7 #21
ECU allowed	2.6 #14	7.1 #70	9.7 #28	3.4 #22	4.2 #22	7.7 #10

ECU scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	10.3 #8	7.8 #82	18.1 #27	7.9 #29	7.9 #43	15.8 #30
MEM allowed	5.8 #82	10.2 #116	16.0 #106	2.3 #9	2.8 #3	5.1 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.