UTSA @ Charlotte: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Charlotte · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

UTSA

4-5 · Power #65

▲ winner

Final

Charlotte

1-8 · Power #134

final

Closing spread

UTSA -17.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 37–19 CLT

✓ UTSA (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -17.5

CloseUTSA -17.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTSA -17.5

no move

CloseUTSA -17.5

No change since the open

Total

Open60.5

▼ 3

Close57.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTSA -17.5 · unchangedmodel UTSA -18

model UTSA -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 15.5–19.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 49% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -17.5

CloseUTSA -17.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 17.5-point road favorite at CLT, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 28–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 57.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.3 against an average line of 17.9; 56.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MTSU @ FIU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-19.5	33–28	L	O54.5
Close	FAU @ FIU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-15.25	52–7	W	O54.5
Close	BGSU @ AKR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	27–20	L	U48.5
Close	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Close	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-18	37–27	L	O55.5
Close	MRSH @ USM 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	37–3	W	U53.5
Close	WKU @ NMSU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-18	41–28	L	O53.5
Close	APP @ TXST 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	24–36	L	O54.5
Close	FRES @ NEV 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-22.5	41–14	W	O54
Close	BUFF @ MASS 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-17	34–7	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA LWLWL	4-5	44%	1-4	2-3
CLT WWLLW	4-5	44%	1-4	3-5

Venue/role: UTSA away, as favorite; CLT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA UOOOO	7-2	78%	4-5
CLT OUOOO	6-2	75%	1-8

Stayed under: it needed 44 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 51% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
CLT	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA−2.5 →−2.5–#76

CLT−11.9 →−21.7▼ 9.8#135

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UTSA

Longer bar = better

CLT

#51

Offense

◀ UTSA better

#125

#113

Defense

◀ UTSA better

#130

+0.3 #45

Turnovers

◀ UTSA better

−1.0 #132

68 plays #55

Pace

◀ UTSA faster

66 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: UTSA offense

	UTSA off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #38	38.4 #135	UTSA
Yards / play	5.92 #56	6.39 #127	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.18 #40	+0.19 #119	UTSA
Success rate	43% #71	52% #137	UTSA

When CLT has the ball

Even matchup

	CLT off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #127	33.0 #125	Even
Yards / play	4.93 #121	6.24 #123	Even
PPA / play	−0.04 #129	+0.23 #126	Even
Success rate	37% #122	42% #76	UTSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	6.8 #52	11.6 #19	18.3 #29	8.7 #20	5.8 #87	14.4 #46
CLT allowed	9.9 #132	11.4 #128	21.3 #134	8.0 #124	9.1 #125	17.1 #131

CLT scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	2.6 #130	4.9 #122	7.4 #132	3.9 #118	6.7 #68	10.6 #102
UTSA allowed	5.8 #80	9.4 #108	15.2 #98	10.8 #135	7.0 #82	17.8 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.