East Carolina @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at UTSA · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

East Carolina

7-3 · Power #51

final

Final

UTSA

5-5 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

ECU -2.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 82 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 31–28 UTSA

✗ ECU (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -3.5

CloseECU -2.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenECU -3.5

1 → UTSA

CloseECU -2.5

1 pt toward UTSA

Total

Open61.5

no move

Close61.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ECU -3.5 · closed ECU -2.5 · moved 1 toward UTSAmodel ECU -3

model ECU -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (226 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (111 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -3.5

CloseECU -2.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as a 2.5-point road favorite at UTSA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 58–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 82 points went over 61.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 3.2; 61.5 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	31–20	W	U63
Very close	COLO @ KU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	21–37	L	U59.5
Very close	GT @ NCSU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	36–48	L	O58.5
Very close	OKST @ UCF 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	3–45	L	U64
Very close	UCF @ CIN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–26	L	U60
Very close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Very close	TCU @ CIN 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–13	W	U58.5
Very close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Very close	UCF @ MEM 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3	35–28	W	O60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU LLWLW	6-4	60%	3-1	5-2
UTSA WLWLW	5-5	50%	3-1	2-2

Venue/role: ECU away, as favorite; UTSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU UOOOO	5-5	50%	7-3
UTSA OOOOU	7-3	70%	5-5

Went over in Q4. Of 247 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UTSA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ECU 1–1 UTSA Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · ECU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	UTSA 20 @ East Carolina 30	ECU -1.5	ECU W
Oct 28 2023	East Carolina 27 @ UTSA 41	UTSA -17.5	ECU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−5.0 →+4.2▲ 9.2#51

UTSA−2.5 →−1.8▲ 0.7#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ECU

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#38

Offense

Even

#42

#25

Defense

◀ ECU better

#97

+0.5 #30

Turnovers

◀ ECU better

+0.2 #59

79 plays #1

Pace

◀ ECU faster

68 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: ECU offense

	ECU off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #29	30.4 #113	ECU
Yards / play	5.91 #57	5.99 #111	ECU
PPA / play	+0.18 #42	+0.17 #106	ECU
Success rate	48% #23	41% #58	ECU

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #38	18.3 #15	ECU
Yards / play	6.03 #47	5.11 #37	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #43	+0.01 #30	Even
Success rate	45% #41	37% #16	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	10.0 #8	7.3 #90	17.3 #36	8.5 #21	7.8 #41	16.3 #23
UTSA allowed	5.2 #63	8.5 #93	13.7 #83	9.7 #132	7.0 #88	16.7 #131

UTSA scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	6.8 #53	10.4 #32	17.2 #37	8.5 #21	6.6 #70	15.1 #36
ECU allowed	2.3 #8	8.1 #87	10.4 #32	3.8 #29	4.1 #20	7.9 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.