Southern Miss @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at South Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

7-3 · Power #98

final

Final

South Alabama

3-7 · Power #102

▲ winner

Closing spread

USM -2.5

✓ USA W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 28–26 USA

✗ USM (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -2.5

CloseUSM -2.5

Total56.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSM -2.5

no move

CloseUSM -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

▼ 3

Close53.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USM -2.5 · unchangedmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (226 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -2.5

CloseUSM -2.5

Total56.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USM as a 2.5-point road favorite at USA, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 42–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 3.2; 56.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB @ FIU 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	27–34	L	O51.5
Very close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Very close	ODU @ APP 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	20–28	L	U58
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	FRES @ NEV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–21	P	U50
Very close	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4	24–38	L	O51.5
Very close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Very close	LIB @ BUFF 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.75	55–27	W	O54
Very close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5
Very close	USM @ UL 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	22–10	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM WWWLL	6-4	60%	2-2	5-2
USA LLWLW	4-6	40%	1-4	2-1

Venue/role: USM away, as favorite; USA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM OUOUU	5-5	50%	7-3
USA OUOOU	6-4	60%	3-7

Went over in Q4. Of 567 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
USA	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USM 0–2 USA USA leads · 2 games since 2023 · USA has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	South Alabama 35 @ Southern Miss 14	USA -24.5	USM W
Oct 17 2023	Southern Miss 3 @ South Alabama 55	USA -18.5	USA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−18.7 →−7.1▲ 11.6#93

USA−2.3 →−9.1▼ 6.8#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

USM

Longer bar = better

USA

#61

Offense

◀ USM better

#82

#60

Defense

◀ USM better

#92

+1.3 #3

Turnovers

◀ USM better

+0.1 #64

70 plays #34

Pace

Even

69 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: USM offense

	USM off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #51	28.1 #95	USM
Yards / play	5.87 #58	5.57 #72	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #51	+0.18 #112	USM
Success rate	41% #85	43% #88	Even

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USM defense

	USA off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #84	25.9 #81	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #88	5.29 #52	USM
PPA / play	+0.10 #75	+0.01 #31	USM
Success rate	42% #80	42% #76	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USM scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	7.2 #39	8.2 #78	15.4 #62	6.9 #46	8.2 #35	15.1 #36
USA allowed	8.0 #121	6.9 #57	14.9 #95	5.8 #86	6.7 #73	12.5 #78

USA scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.6 #57	5.1 #119	11.7 #99	6.0 #65	7.3 #55	13.3 #57
USM allowed	7.8 #116	4.7 #14	12.5 #64	5.3 #59	8.1 #113	13.4 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.