USC @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

USC

8-2 · Power #12

final

Final

Oregon

9-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -12.5

✓ ORE W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 25–37 ORE

✓ ORE (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -8.5

CloseORE -12.5

Total55.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -8.5

4 → ORE

CloseORE -12.5

4 pts toward Oregon

Total

Open55.5

▲ 5

Close60.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -8.5 · closed ORE -12.5 · moved 4 toward OREmodel ORE -9

model ORE -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 55% (106 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (151 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -8.5

CloseORE -12.5

Total55.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 12.5-point home favorite against USC, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 42–27; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 60.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.2 against an average line of 11.7; 57 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OU vs TCU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-11.5	69–45	W	O66
Close	ND vs USC 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	34–24	L	U60.5
Close	UTAH vs CIN 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-11	45–14	W	O57.5
Close	USC vs WSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	30–14	W	U64.5
Loose	CLEM vs LOU 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & season form	-11	21–33	L	U62.5
Loose	ALA vs VAN 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13.5	30–14	W	U57.5
Loose	UGA vs TENN 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.75	27–13	W	U65.5
Loose	ORE vs ORST 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & season form	-14	31–7	W	U61.25
Loose	LSU vs TA&M 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & rest	-10.5	42–30	W	O67.75
Loose	MISS vs ARK 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13	27–20	L	U62

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC WWLWL	5-5	50%	1-3	1-0
ORE LWLLW	5-5	50%	3-3	4-5

Venue/role: USC away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC UUUOU	5-5	50%	8-2
ORE UOUUO	5-5	50%	9-1

Went over in Q4. Of 280 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ORE	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USC 39–24 ORE (2 tied) USC leads · 65 games since 1920 · ORE has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	USC 27 @ Oregon 36	ORE -17	USC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+14.0 →+18.4▲ 4.4#11

ORE+21.3 →+24.3▲ 3.0#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

USC

Longer bar = better

ORE

Offense

Even

#70

Defense

ORE better ▶

#11

+0.4 #36

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #32

66 plays #76

Pace

◀ USC faster

65 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	38.2 #10	13.7 #6	Even
Yards / play	7.43 #2	3.98 #3	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #4	−0.03 #16	Even
Success rate	52% #4	37% #17	Even

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #7	21.7 #41	ORE
Yards / play	7.36 #3	5.59 #74	ORE
PPA / play	+0.38 #2	+0.05 #52	ORE
Success rate	51% #6	45% #111	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USC scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	7.9 #26	10.9 #23	18.8 #22	9.7 #10	9.7 #15	19.4 #9
ORE allowed	2.0 #4	2.5 #3	4.5 #3	1.7 #2	6.8 #78	8.5 #18

ORE scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	8.8 #16	13.1 #4	21.9 #7	10.7 #4	5.1 #110	15.8 #29
USC allowed	5.1 #59	6.9 #57	12.0 #58	5.7 #82	4.0 #19	9.7 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.