Michigan State @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Iowa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Michigan State

3-7 · Power #67

final

Final

Iowa

6-4 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -17.5

✓ MSU W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 12–30 IOWA

✓ IOWA (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -16.5

CloseIOWA -17.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -16.5

1 → IOWA

CloseIOWA -17.5

1 pt toward Iowa

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -16.5 · closed IOWA -17.5 · moved 1 toward IOWAmodel IOWA -19

model IOWA -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 50% (124 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (256 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -16.5

CloseIOWA -17.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 17.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 43.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.2 against an average line of 17.1; 45.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN vs NU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-17	31–3	W	U41
Very close	NCST vs BC 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-18	20–21	L	P41
Very close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Very close	TROY vs UL 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-15.5	31–24	L	O47.5
Very close	LOU vs CAL 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	26–29	L	O49
Close	IOWA vs NU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	40–14	W	O38
Close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	31–0	W	U40.5
Close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Close	MICH vs WIS 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-17.5	24–10	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU LWWWL	5-5	50%	4-0	5-1
IOWA WLWWW	8-2	80%	4-2	4-2

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU UOOUU	6-4	60%	3-7
IOWA UOOUU	4-6	40%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 55% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
IOWA	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MSU 1–1 IOWA Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · MSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Iowa 20 @ Michigan State 32	IOWA -6.5	MSU W
Sep 30 2023	Michigan State 16 @ Iowa 26	IOWA -10	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+0.3 →−1.3▼ 1.6#71

IOWA+7.8 →+13.1▲ 5.3#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MSU

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#98

Offense

IOWA better ▶

#71

#114

Defense

IOWA better ▶

#18

−0.4 #104

Turnovers

IOWA better ▶

+0.3 #47

63 plays #117

Pace

Even

61 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	MSU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #93	14.9 #9	IOWA
Yards / play	5.34 #97	4.43 #9	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.03 #109	−0.04 #15	IOWA
Success rate	41% #93	39% #37	IOWA

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: IOWA offense

	IOWA off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #62	31.1 #116	IOWA
Yards / play	5.10 #109	5.95 #109	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #67	+0.18 #110	IOWA
Success rate	45% #46	46% #121	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	4.5 #102	5.8 #112	10.3 #116	6.1 #62	5.8 #90	11.9 #86
IOWA allowed	3.6 #35	5.8 #30	9.4 #20	2.2 #8	3.3 #11	5.5 #4

IOWA scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	8.4 #18	9.6 #52	18.0 #30	3.6 #118	7.1 #59	10.7 #99
MSU allowed	6.8 #100	8.0 #83	14.8 #94	6.6 #103	7.8 #107	14.4 #109

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.