Syracuse @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff46°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Syracuse

3-7 · Power #92

final

Final

Notre Dame

8-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -36.5

✓ ND W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 8–44 ND

✓ ND (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -35.5

CloseND -36.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -35.5

1 → ND

CloseND -36.5

1 pt toward Notre Dame

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -35.5 · closed ND -36.5 · moved 1 toward NDmodel ND -33.5

model ND -33.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 35.5–37.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 65% (43 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (256 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -35.5

CloseND -36.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 36.5-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 70–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 33.9 against an average line of 35.1; 55.9 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs MSST 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-34	41–31	L	O53.5
Close	UGA vs GT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-36.5	37–14	L	O49
Close	OSU vs UCLA 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & total	-33	48–10	W	O46.5
Close	MISS vs WSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-33	24–21	L	U58.5
Close	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Close	PSU vs IU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-31	33–24	L	O45
Close	OSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation	-37.5	45–0	W	U55.5
Close	UGA vs VAN 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-37.5	55–0	W	U56.5
Loose	TEX vs SHSU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-39.5	55–0	W	O51.5
Loose	MICH vs IU 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-33.5	52–7	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR WLLLW	4-6	40%	3-1	3-4
ND WLLWW	5-5	50%	3-3	5-5

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR UUOUO	5-5	50%	3-7
ND UUUOU	5-5	50%	8-2

Went over in Q3. Of 621 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
ND	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SYR 3–9 ND ND leads · 12 games since 1914 · ND has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR+5.9 →−4.5▼ 10.4#81

ND+21.6 →+23.7▲ 2.1#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

SYR

Longer bar = better

#113

Offense

ND better ▶

#11

#118

Defense

ND better ▶

#20

−1.0 #132

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+0.9 #11

71 plays #30

Pace

◀ SYR faster

64 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	SYR off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #107	18.4 #17	ND
Yards / play	5.14 #105	4.88 #22	ND
PPA / play	−0.02 #125	−0.03 #17	ND
Success rate	39% #113	38% #23	ND

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	38.5 #8	31.5 #118	ND
Yards / play	7.17 #6	6.19 #120	ND
PPA / play	+0.27 #14	+0.19 #115	ND
Success rate	49% #16	45% #120	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	4.4 #107	6.4 #103	10.8 #110	3.3 #126	7.5 #51	10.8 #97
ND allowed	2.7 #15	9.8 #111	12.5 #64	3.0 #20	2.9 #3	5.9 #6

ND scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	8.3 #19	11.7 #14	20.0 #15	10.5 #5	8.0 #39	18.5 #12
SYR allowed	5.3 #68	11.4 #131	16.7 #114	7.9 #122	6.9 #83	14.8 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.