Notre Dame @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Stanford

Weather at kickoff48°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Notre Dame

9-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Stanford

4-7 · Power #85

final

Closing spread

ND -32.5

✓ STAN W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 41–9 STAN

✓ ND (99%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -31.5

CloseND -32.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -31.5

1 → ND

CloseND -32.5

1 pt toward Notre Dame

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -31.5 · closed ND -32.5 · moved 1 toward NDmodel ND -28.5

model ND -28.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (267 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -31.5

CloseND -32.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 32.5-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 49–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.3 against an average line of 29.6; 50.3 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OSU @ PUR 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-29.5	34–10	L	U49.5
Close	UGA @ VAN 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-32.5	37–20	L	O55
Close	PSU @ NU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-27	41–13	W	O46
Close	PSU @ PUR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-30	49–10	W	O51.5
Close	ND @ BC 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-31	25–10	L	U55.5
Close	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Close	ND @ STAN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-26	56–23	W	O50
Close	OSU @ NU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-28.5	31–7	L	U44.5
Close	UGA @ MIZ 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-30.75	26–22	L	U54.25
Loose	ALA @ USF 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-34.25	17–3	L	U60.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND LLWWW	6-5	55%	2-2	6-5
STAN WLLWW	4-7	36%	3-2	4-6

Venue/role: ND away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND UUOUO	6-5	55%	9-2
STAN UOOUU	5-6	45%	4-7

Went over in Q4. Of 613 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
STAN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ND 26–14 STAN ND leads · 40 games since 1924 · ND has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Stanford 7 @ Notre Dame 49	ND -22.5	ND W
Nov 25 2023	Notre Dame 56 @ Stanford 23	ND -26	ND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+21.6 →+25.0▲ 3.4#3

STAN−3.7 →−4.8▼ 1.1#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

STAN

Offense

◀ ND better

#124

#13

Defense

◀ ND better

#84

+1.1 #4

Turnovers

◀ ND better

−0.3 #97

62 plays #125

Pace

STAN faster ▶

65 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	41.4 #5	27.4 #86	ND
Yards / play	7.34 #3	5.82 #93	ND
PPA / play	+0.29 #11	+0.12 #82	ND
Success rate	49% #12	42% #75	ND

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	STAN off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #124	17.4 #13	ND
Yards / play	4.72 #131	4.63 #14	ND
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	−0.07 #9	ND
Success rate	37% #121	37% #17	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ND scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	10.7 #4	11.9 #11	22.6 #5	10.2 #5	8.5 #30	18.7 #9
STAN allowed	5.8 #84	9.1 #101	14.9 #96	6.5 #99	5.9 #52	12.5 #75

STAN scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	4.5 #102	6.2 #107	10.7 #111	2.4 #133	5.6 #100	8.0 #131
ND allowed	2.5 #9	8.9 #95	11.4 #51	2.7 #12	3.3 #9	6.0 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.