Virginia Tech @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff36°F6 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Virginia Tech

3-8 · Power #73

final

Final

Virginia

9-2 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

UVA -8.5

✓ UVA W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 23–32 UVA

✓ UVA (74%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUVA -9.5

CloseUVA -8.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -9.5

1 → VT

CloseUVA -8.5

1 pt toward Virginia Tech

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -9.5 · closed UVA -8.5 · moved 1 toward VTmodel UVA -12

model UVA -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 50% (165 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (311 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUVA -9.5

CloseUVA -8.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as an 8.5-point home favorite against VT, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 27–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 9.9; 52.3 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	GT vs NCSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	30–29	L	O51
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	TCU vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	49–28	W	O60
Very close	ASU vs WVU 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	25–23	L	O46.5
Very close	ODU vs TROY 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-9.5	33–0	W	U53.5
Very close	VAN vs UK 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	45–17	W	O53.5
Very close	UCF vs BAY 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-11.5	35–36	L	O56
Very close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-9.5	23–24	L	O46
Very close	GT vs VT 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-14	35–20	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT LWLLW	3-7	30%	1-2	2-4
UVA LLWLW	7-4	64%	4-2	4-3

Venue/role: VT away, as underdog; UVA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT UOUUO	5-6	45%	3-8
UVA UUUUU	5-6	45%	9-2

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	5-5 50%
UVA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

VT 2–0 UVA VT leads · 2 games since 2023 · VT has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Virginia 17 @ Virginia Tech 37	VT -4.5	VT W
Nov 25 2023	Virginia Tech 55 @ Virginia 17	VT -1.5	VT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+6.8 →−1.0▼ 7.8#72

UVA−1.6 →+7.7▲ 9.3#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

UVA

#80

Offense

UVA better ▶

#46

#120

Defense

UVA better ▶

#31

−0.5 #114

Turnovers

UVA better ▶

+0.5 #28

65 plays #88

Pace

UVA faster ▶

74 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Advantage: UVA defense

	VT off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #105	21.2 #36	UVA
Yards / play	5.55 #81	5.02 #31	UVA
PPA / play	+0.12 #68	+0.02 #29	UVA
Success rate	43% #65	38% #27	UVA

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #26	30.5 #112	UVA
Yards / play	5.96 #48	6.01 #110	UVA
PPA / play	+0.17 #43	+0.25 #131	UVA
Success rate	43% #67	46% #125	UVA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

VT scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	4.6 #102	6.2 #106	10.8 #111	5.2 #88	5.4 #105	10.5 #103
UVA allowed	2.5 #10	8.1 #84	10.6 #36	5.5 #67	3.9 #15	9.5 #30

UVA scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	9.1 #12	10.4 #34	19.5 #15	7.7 #30	4.4 #125	12.1 #78
VT allowed	5.1 #60	9.5 #108	14.5 #93	6.8 #107	8.5 #112	15.3 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.