West Virginia @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

West Virginia

4-6 · Power #77

final

Final

Arizona State

6-3 · Power #41

▲ winner

Closing spread

ASU -9.5

✓ WVU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 19–30 ASU

✓ ASU (78%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -10.5

CloseASU -9.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -10.5

1 → WVU

CloseASU -9.5

1 pt toward West Virginia

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -10.5 · closed ASU -9.5 · moved 1 toward WVUmodel ASU -16

model ASU -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 44% (137 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (283 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -10.5

CloseASU -9.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ASU as a 9.5-point home favorite against WVU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 25–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 9.7; 51.3 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TULN vs ARMY 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	24–17	L	U44.5
Very close	NCSU vs STAN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	59–28	W	O46.5
Very close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	23–24	L	O46
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	GT vs NCSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	30–29	L	O51
Very close	WIS vs NU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-12	10–24	L	U43.5
Close	MD vs NU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-11	10–37	L	O45
Close	UCLA vs FRES 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	20–13	L	U46.5
Close	TTU vs HOU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-8.5	49–28	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU WLWWW	5-5	50%	2-3	4-3
ASU WLWLW	5-4	56%	3-2	2-3

Venue/role: WVU away, as underdog; ASU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU OOUOU	5-5	50%	4-6
ASU UOUUU	2-7	22%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 468 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ASU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU+0.8 →−2.3▼ 3.1#75

ASU+11.1 →+9.0▼ 2.1#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

WVU

Longer bar = better

ASU

#112

Offense

ASU better ▶

#87

#75

Defense

ASU better ▶

#59

+0.2 #60

Turnovers

ASU better ▶

+0.3 #40

73 plays #18

Pace

Even

74 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: ASU defense

	WVU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #95	23.7 #66	ASU
Yards / play	4.95 #118	5.10 #40	ASU
PPA / play	0.00 #118	+0.06 #54	ASU
Success rate	38% #118	42% #74	ASU

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #87	29.6 #102	Even
Yards / play	5.55 #80	5.66 #81	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #86	+0.09 #64	WVU
Success rate	41% #94	40% #53	WVU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	3.7 #121	5.4 #115	9.1 #121	5.4 #81	8.6 #31	14.0 #51
ASU allowed	4.8 #52	7.1 #69	11.9 #61	5.7 #76	6.1 #61	11.8 #64

ASU scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	3.2 #127	7.1 #91	10.3 #111	6.9 #48	7.4 #54	14.3 #49
WVU allowed	6.9 #105	9.4 #108	16.3 #109	7.3 #113	6.0 #57	13.3 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.