Utah @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Utah

7-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Baylor

5-4 · Power #50

final

Closing spread

UTAH -9.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 35–25 BAY

✓ UTAH (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -7.5

CloseUTAH -9.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -7.5

2 → UTAH

CloseUTAH -9.5

2 pts toward Utah

Total

Open60.5

▲ 1

Close61.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -7.5 · closed UTAH -9.5 · moved 2 toward UTAHmodel UTAH -10.5

model UTAH -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 47% (84 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (228 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -7.5

CloseUTAH -9.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 9.5-point road favorite at BAY, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 55–28; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 83 points went over 61.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 9.2; 64 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OU @ KU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-7	33–38	L	O66.5
Close	KSU @ KU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	31–27	L	U59.5
Close	MISS @ FLA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-13	17–24	L	U57.5
Close	UGA @ TENN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-9	38–10	W	U59
Close	MIA @ GT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-9.5	23–28	L	U65
Close	TEX @ TTU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-7	34–37	L	O60.25
Close	SMU @ MEM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	38–34	L	O64.5
Close	MIA @ SYR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-12	38–42	L	O67.5
Close	KSU @ WVU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-8	48–31	W	O54.5
Close	TEX @ KU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-9	55–14	W	O63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH WWLWW	7-2	78%	3-1	7-2
BAY LLLLW	2-7	22%	1-4	1-2

Venue/role: UTAH away, as favorite; BAY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUOO	6-3	67%	7-2
BAY OOOUU	5-4	56%	5-4

Went over in Q4. Of 245 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
BAY	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UTAH 2–0 BAY UTAH leads · 2 games since 2023 · UTAH has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	Baylor 12 @ Utah 23	UTAH -14.5	BAY W
Sep 9 2023	Utah 20 @ Baylor 13	UTAH -7	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+4.1 →+19.3▲ 15.2#9

BAY+6.9 →+7.0▲ 0.1#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UTAH

Longer bar = better

BAY

#14

Offense

◀ UTAH better

#41

#12

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#85

+0.1 #62

Turnovers

◀ UTAH better

−0.9 #126

75 plays #6

Pace

Even

75 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: UTAH offense

	UTAH off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	39.6 #6	29.3 #103	UTAH
Yards / play	6.38 #28	5.48 #67	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.29 #9	+0.10 #79	UTAH
Success rate	49% #14	43% #92	UTAH

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	BAY off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #24	14.2 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.02 #49	4.73 #17	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.16 #50	−0.06 #12	UTAH
Success rate	45% #40	35% #12	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	9.1 #12	11.7 #17	20.8 #9	9.2 #14	9.6 #19	18.8 #10
BAY allowed	6.1 #90	9.8 #108	15.9 #106	5.3 #65	7.3 #98	12.7 #84

BAY scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	5.7 #77	11.8 #13	17.4 #36	3.8 #117	11.4 #2	15.2 #36
UTAH allowed	2.2 #7	2.6 #3	4.8 #5	2.7 #10	6.8 #76	9.4 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.