Marshall @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Marshall

4-5 · Power #88

▲ winner

Final

Georgia State

1-8 · Power #125

final

Closing spread

MRSH -9.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 34–24 GAST

✓ MRSH (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -6.5

CloseMRSH -9.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMRSH -6.5

3 → MRSH

CloseMRSH -9.5

3 pts toward Marshall

Total

Open62.5

▼ 3

Close59.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MRSH -6.5 · closed MRSH -9.5 · moved 3 toward MRSHmodel MRSH -9.5 matches the line

model MRSH -9.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 47% (82 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (80 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -6.5

CloseMRSH -9.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 9.5-point road favorite at GAST, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 30–18; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 59.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 9.3; 57.2 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SJSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10	35–0	W	U57
Very close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Very close	UTSA @ TLSA 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	45–46	L	O52.5
Very close	WKU @ FIU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	41–28	W	O54.25
Close	CONN @ UAB 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	31–23	W	P54
Close	BOIS @ CSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	30–31	L	O60
Close	CAL @ STAN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–15	W	U53.5
Close	ODU @ ARST 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	40–32	W	O58.5
Close	UNT @ TEM 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-11	24–17	L	U63.5
Close	BGSU @ BALL 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-12.5	38–13	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH LWWLW	6-3	67%	2-2	2-3
GAST WLLLL	1-8	11%	1-4	1-7

Venue/role: MRSH away, as favorite; GAST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH OOOOO	7-2	78%	4-5
GAST UOOOO	6-3	67%	1-8

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 47% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSH	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
GAST	1-9 10%	1-9 10%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MRSH 1–1 GAST Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · MRSH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 17 2024	Georgia State 20 @ Marshall 35	MRSH -8.5	MRSH W
Oct 14 2023	Marshall 24 @ Georgia State 41	GAST -1.5	GAST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−1.7 →−5.6▼ 3.9#88

GAST−9.1 →−16.6▼ 7.5#127

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MRSH

Longer bar = better

GAST

#62

Offense

◀ MRSH better

#87

Defense

◀ MRSH better

#132

+0.7 #25

Turnovers

◀ MRSH better

−1.0 #128

73 plays #17

Pace

◀ MRSH faster

68 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: MRSH offense

	MRSH off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #37	40.7 #137	MRSH
Yards / play	5.45 #87	6.49 #130	MRSH
PPA / play	+0.12 #65	+0.26 #133	MRSH
Success rate	44% #59	47% #127	MRSH

When GAST has the ball

Even matchup

	GAST off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	21.1 #113	32.8 #122	Even
Yards / play	5.43 #89	6.25 #125	GAST
PPA / play	+0.10 #74	+0.10 #75	Even
Success rate	43% #70	38% #24	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	7.2 #42	10.0 #43	17.2 #38	6.9 #48	6.2 #79	13.1 #59
GAST allowed	8.9 #128	10.2 #115	19.1 #130	10.0 #135	11.6 #135	21.6 #136

GAST scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	7.6 #34	4.3 #129	11.9 #101	4.1 #107	5.1 #105	9.2 #117
MRSH allowed	6.1 #88	8.7 #98	14.8 #92	7.3 #114	8.1 #113	15.4 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.