Georgia Southern @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 1:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Marshall · Conference game

Weather at kickoff42°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

5-6 · Power #105

▲ winner

Final

Marshall

5-6 · Power #88

final

Closing spread

MRSH -10.5

✓ GASO W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 26–36 MRSH

✗ MRSH (78%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMRSH -10.5

CloseMRSH -10.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMRSH -10.5

no move

CloseMRSH -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open62.5

no move

Close62.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MRSH -10.5 · unchangedmodel MRSH -11.5

model MRSH -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 43% (141 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMRSH -10.5

CloseMRSH -10.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 10.5-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: GASO won 24–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 62.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.9 against an average line of 10.2; 58.5 points a game (usually 54). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	31–13	W	U57.5
Very close	GAST vs ULM 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	28–31	L	U59.5
Very close	UNLV vs HAW 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11	44–20	W	O59
Very close	UL vs APP 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	34–24	P	U64
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Very close	CONN vs AFA 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	26–16	W	U64.5
Very close	MEM vs UNT 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.75	44–34	L	O68.5
Very close	APP vs GASO 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-10.5	55–27	W	O63
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Very close	HOU vs TLSA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13	30–37	L	P67

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WLWWL	5-6	45%	1-4	1-5
MRSH WLWWL	7-4	64%	4-1	3-4

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; MRSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO OUUOU	7-4	64%	5-6
MRSH OOOUU	7-4	64%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 46% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MRSH	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

GASO 1–1 MRSH Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · GASO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Marshall 23 @ Georgia Southern 24	GASO -1.5	MRSH W
Nov 11 2023	Georgia Southern 33 @ Marshall 38	GASO -1	MRSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−5.7 →−12.8▼ 7.1#116

MRSH−1.7 →−4.6▼ 2.9#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

GASO

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#52

Offense

Even

#51

#132

Defense

MRSH better ▶

#77

+0.3 #48

Turnovers

MRSH better ▶

+0.5 #27

68 plays #60

Pace

MRSH faster ▶

71 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: GASO offense

	GASO off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #63	30.8 #114	GASO
Yards / play	5.77 #68	5.94 #105	GASO
PPA / play	+0.18 #36	+0.09 #69	GASO
Success rate	45% #41	38% #21	Even

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: MRSH offense

	MRSH off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #40	35.5 #131	MRSH
Yards / play	5.72 #70	6.50 #130	MRSH
PPA / play	+0.14 #54	+0.26 #134	MRSH
Success rate	45% #40	49% #133	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	8.3 #20	7.5 #87	15.7 #52	5.6 #79	6.8 #65	12.5 #69
MRSH allowed	5.9 #85	8.5 #93	14.5 #93	7.4 #118	6.9 #78	14.3 #104

MRSH scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	7.2 #34	10.7 #27	17.9 #29	5.9 #69	5.9 #88	11.8 #85
GASO allowed	10.1 #133	10.5 #123	20.5 #133	9.4 #131	5.6 #48	15.0 #117

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.