Houston @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F12 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Houston

8-3 · Power #49

▲ winner

Final

Baylor

5-6 · Power #50

final

Closing spread

BAY -2.5

✓ HOU W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 27–30 BAY

✗ BAY (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAY -2.5

CloseBAY -2.5

Total59.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -2.5

no move

CloseBAY -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open59.5

▼ 2

Close57.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAY -2.5 · unchangedmodel BAY -5

model BAY -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 52% (313 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAY -2.5

CloseBAY -2.5

Total59.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 2.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 31–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 57.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 3.3; 66.4 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RUTG vs MD 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	35–20	W	U56.5
Very close	TTU vs WVU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	52–15	W	O62.5
Very close	UNC vs NCSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	30–35	L	O54.5
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–33	L	O56
Very close	DUKE vs NCSU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	45–33	W	O57.5
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Very close	BAY vs UCF 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	30–3	W	U58.5
Very close	SMU vs HOU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	77–63	W	O66
Very close	GT vs SYR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	31–22	W	O51.5
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	28–41	L	O59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWLWL	7-4	64%	4-1	3-2
BAY LLWLL	2-9	18%	1-5	1-5

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OUOOU	7-4	64%	8-3
BAY OUUOU	6-5	55%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 50% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
BAY	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

HOU 1–1 BAY Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · BAY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Baylor 20 @ Houston 10	BAY -6.5	BAY W
Nov 4 2023	Houston 25 @ Baylor 24	BAY -2	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−1.8 →+3.2▲ 5.0#56

BAY+6.9 →+5.1▼ 1.8#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

HOU

Longer bar = better

BAY

#83

Offense

BAY better ▶

#53

#41

Defense

◀ HOU better

#105

+0.2 #56

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−1.1 #134

69 plays #37

Pace

BAY faster ▶

77 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #65	32.7 #124	HOU
Yards / play	5.59 #73	5.74 #85	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	+0.15 #103	Even
Success rate	41% #91	44% #106	Even

When BAY has the ball

Even matchup

	BAY off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #42	21.6 #41	Even
Yards / play	5.89 #55	5.13 #39	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #65	+0.03 #36	HOU
Success rate	44% #51	40% #46	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.9 #93	9.7 #47	14.6 #68	7.1 #40	6.1 #82	13.2 #59
BAY allowed	6.9 #103	9.9 #113	16.8 #115	5.6 #71	9.6 #129	15.3 #119

BAY scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	5.9 #69	11.5 #19	17.4 #35	3.4 #122	10.1 #10	13.5 #53
HOU allowed	6.7 #98	5.9 #31	12.6 #70	1.7 #3	7.3 #94	9.0 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.