Maryland @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 2:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Maryland

4-4 · Power #72

final

Final

Rutgers

4-5 · Power #62

▲ winner

Closing spread

RUTG -1.5

✓ RUTG W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 27–29 RUTG

✓ RUTG (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -2.5

CloseRUTG -1.5

Total59.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenRUTG -2.5

1 → MD

CloseRUTG -1.5

1 pt toward Maryland

Total

Open59.5

▼ 3

Close56.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened RUTG -2.5 · closed RUTG -1.5 · moved 1 toward MDmodel RUTG -1.5 matches the line

model RUTG -1.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (177 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (270 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -2.5

CloseRUTG -1.5

Total59.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RUTG as a 1.5-point home favorite against MD, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: RUTG won 35–20; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.3 against an average line of 3; 55.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNC vs NCSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	30–35	L	O54.5
Very close	BAY vs UCF 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	30–3	W	U58.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	WVU vs KU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	32–28	W	O56
Very close	DUKE vs NCSU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	45–33	W	O57.5
Very close	HOU vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	14–24	L	U53.75
Very close	TTU vs WVU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	52–15	W	O62.5
Very close	WSU vs COLO 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	56–14	W	O59.5
Very close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD WWWWL	5-3	63%	2-0	4-1
RUTG WLLWL	4-5	44%	2-3	2-1

Venue/role: MD away, as underdog; RUTG home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD UUOUO	3-5	38%	4-4
RUTG OUOUU	6-3	67%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
RUTG	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MD 12–10 RUTG MD leads · 22 games since 1920 · RUTG has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Rutgers 31 @ Maryland 17	MD -4.5	RUTG W
Nov 25 2023	Maryland 42 @ Rutgers 24	MD -2	MD W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+2.1 →+1.8▼ 0.3#61

RUTG+3.4 →+0.9▼ 2.5#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#94

Offense

RUTG better ▶

#50

#37

Defense

◀ MD better

#128

+0.9 #18

Turnovers

◀ MD better

+0.2 #58

66 plays #75

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

73 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MD offense

	MD off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #80	31.1 #116	MD
Yards / play	5.18 #103	7.52 #136	MD
PPA / play	+0.10 #85	+0.27 #132	MD
Success rate	40% #106	48% #129	MD

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #63	22.0 #49	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #71	5.28 #51	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #39	−0.05 #15	MD
Success rate	47% #28	39% #31	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MD scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	5.9 #75	10.8 #33	16.6 #51	6.4 #61	3.0 #132	9.4 #115
RUTG allowed	6.6 #97	9.9 #114	16.4 #115	10.4 #134	4.2 #21	14.7 #111

RUTG scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	6.8 #55	10.1 #43	16.9 #47	4.4 #104	8.0 #43	12.4 #76
MD allowed	2.6 #15	5.0 #21	7.6 #12	5.0 #56	9.4 #128	14.4 #106

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.