Indiana @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F9 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Indiana

8-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Maryland

4-3 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

IU -21.5

✓ IU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 35–14 MD

✓ IU (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -21.5

CloseIU -21.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -21.5

no move

CloseIU -21.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -21.5 · unchangedmodel IU -20

model IU -20

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -21.5

CloseIU -21.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 21.5-point road favorite at MD, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 55–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.1 against an average line of 20.9; 45.3 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ALA @ VAN 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-23	35–40	L	O53.5
Very close	OSU @ RUTG 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-19	35–16	P	O42.5
Close	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5
Close	TEX @ VAN 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-17	27–24	L	P51
Close	FSU @ PITT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-21.5	24–7	L	U50
Close	OSU @ MSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-23.5	38–7	W	U48.5
Close	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-21	41–16	W	O53
Close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Close	UGA @ UK 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread	-22	13–12	L	U45
Close	MICH @ MINN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-18.5	52–10	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU WLWLW	4-3	57%	1-1	3-3
MD LWWWW	5-2	71%	3-2	4-0

Venue/role: IU away, as favorite; MD home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU OUUOO	5-3	63%	8-0
MD OUUOU	2-5	29%	4-3

Went over in Q3. Of 579 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	9-1 90%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%
MD	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

IU 1–1 MD Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · IU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Maryland 28 @ Indiana 42	IU -7.5	IU W
Sep 30 2023	Indiana 17 @ Maryland 44	MD -14.5	MD W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU+13.4 →+23.9▲ 10.5#2

MD+2.1 →+3.6▲ 1.5#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ IU better

#89

Defense

Even

#17

+1.0 #11

Turnovers

Even

+1.6 #1

70 plays #34

Pace

Even

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Even matchup

	IU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	45.4 #3	17.3 #18	Even
Yards / play	7.10 #9	4.90 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #10	−0.09 #6	Even
Success rate	54% #3	37% #19	Even

When MD has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	MD off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #74	10.9 #3	IU
Yards / play	5.10 #111	4.39 #11	IU
PPA / play	+0.13 #70	−0.08 #10	IU
Success rate	41% #101	33% #8	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

IU scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	11.8 #5	12.9 #6	24.6 #4	12.6 #2	8.1 #44	20.8 #4
MD allowed	2.0 #9	3.9 #9	5.9 #7	2.7 #19	8.7 #122	11.4 #64

MD scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	6.3 #71	12.3 #13	18.6 #30	6.3 #66	3.4 #128	9.7 #112
IU allowed	3.4 #30	3.6 #7	7.0 #10	1.1 #2	2.8 #5	3.9 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.