Iowa State @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F18 mphgusts 32Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Iowa State

7-4 · Power #36

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma State

1-10 · Power #111

final

Closing spread

ISU -14

✓ OKST W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 30–15 OKST

✓ ISU (86%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenISU -13.5

CloseISU -14

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -13.5

0.5 → ISU

CloseISU -14

0.5 pts toward Iowa State

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Close47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -13.5 · closed ISU -14 · moved 0.5 toward ISUmodel ISU -21

model ISU -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13–15 since 2023: won 76%, covered 49% (68 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenISU -13.5

CloseISU -14

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 14-point road favorite at OKST, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 20–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14 against an average line of 13.3; 53.6 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AUB @ VAN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	31–15	W	U49.5
Close	HOU @ OKST 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	39–17	W	O47.5
Close	TROY @ USM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-17	35–17	W	O48.5
Close	NIU @ BALL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	23–25	L	O47.5
Close	ILL @ NU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.75	41–3	W	O38
Close	KSU @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	19–24	L	U45.5
Close	PITT @ STAN 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Close	WIS @ IU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	14–20	L	U45
Close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Close	ASU @ COLO 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-13	42–34	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU LLLWW	5-6	45%	1-3	3-5
OKST LLWWW	4-6	40%	2-3	4-5

Venue/role: ISU away, as favorite; OKST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UOUUU	4-7	36%	7-4
OKST OUOUU	5-6	45%	1-10

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
OKST	0-10 0%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ISU 1–0 OKST ISU leads · 1 game since 2023 · ISU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Oklahoma State 27 @ Iowa State 34	ISU -3.5	ISU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+7.6 →+9.0▲ 1.4#31

OKST−2.7 →−12.6▼ 9.9#115

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ISU

Longer bar = better

OKST

#56

Offense

◀ ISU better

#132

#49

Defense

◀ ISU better

#124

+0.3 #46

Turnovers

◀ ISU better

−0.4 #107

69 plays #42

Pace

◀ ISU faster

65 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ISU offense

	ISU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #64	34.5 #128	ISU
Yards / play	5.81 #63	6.39 #127	ISU
PPA / play	+0.15 #51	+0.25 #130	ISU
Success rate	45% #44	45% #111	ISU

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	OKST off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	14.3 #135	20.8 #34	ISU
Yards / play	4.60 #134	5.76 #87	ISU
PPA / play	−0.06 #131	+0.02 #30	ISU
Success rate	35% #129	40% #44	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	7.0 #40	8.8 #66	15.8 #52	6.3 #55	6.0 #85	12.3 #75
OKST allowed	9.0 #129	10.4 #121	19.4 #130	9.0 #129	6.2 #59	15.2 #117

OKST scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	4.9 #93	3.8 #132	8.7 #124	2.2 #134	3.4 #131	5.5 #135
ISU allowed	3.7 #35	6.8 #54	10.5 #32	5.9 #79	4.4 #23	10.3 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.