Toledo @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff30°F9 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Toledo

7-4 · Power #48

▲ winner

Final

Central Michigan

7-4 · Power #103

final

Closing spread

TOL -10.5

✓ TOL W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 28–17 CMU

✓ TOL (78%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -8.5

CloseTOL -10.5

Total43.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -8.5

2 → TOL

CloseTOL -10.5

2 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open43.5

▲ 3

Close46.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -8.5 · closed TOL -10.5 · moved 2 toward TOLmodel TOL -12.5

model TOL -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 52% (84 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (242 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -8.5

CloseTOL -10.5

Total43.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 10.5-point road favorite at CMU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 21–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.2 against an average line of 10.5; 46.8 points a game (usually 54). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TXST @ ULM 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	38–17	W	O50
Close	NAVY @ TEM 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	32–31	L	O52.5
Close	TOL @ M-OH 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	24–3	W	U44.5
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Close	TOL @ BUFF 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	15–30	L	O44.5
Close	OHIO @ BUFF 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	20–10	W	U45
Close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & rest	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Close	MICH @ MD 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-14	45–20	W	O46.5
Close	WIS @ NU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	23–3	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WLWWW	8-3	73%	2-3	7-3
CMU WWWWW	8-3	73%	4-0	3-2

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; CMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL OUOUO	6-5	55%	7-4
CMU UOOOU	7-4	64%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
CMU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TOL 2–0 CMU TOL leads · 2 games since 2023 · TOL has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 12 2024	Central Michigan 10 @ Toledo 37	TOL -14.5	TOL W
Nov 24 2023	Toledo 32 @ Central Michigan 17	TOL -10	TOL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL−4.5 →+4.5▲ 9.0#50

CMU−14.4 →−9.1▲ 5.3#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

TOL

Longer bar = better

CMU

#44

Offense

◀ TOL better

#72

Defense

◀ TOL better

#39

+0.5 #29

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #19

67 plays #61

Pace

◀ TOL faster

61 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Even matchup

	TOL off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #35	22.8 #51	Even
Yards / play	6.27 #30	5.31 #49	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #57	−0.02 #18	CMU
Success rate	44% #53	39% #38	Even

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	CMU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #81	13.0 #5	TOL
Yards / play	5.50 #86	3.82 #2	TOL
PPA / play	+0.17 #44	−0.16 #3	TOL
Success rate	42% #78	32% #3	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	7.3 #36	13.5 #2	20.7 #10	7.2 #38	4.6 #121	11.8 #85
CMU allowed	3.4 #28	8.0 #79	11.4 #52	5.6 #71	5.8 #50	11.5 #59

CMU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	7.5 #31	8.4 #74	15.9 #51	5.3 #86	4.5 #122	9.8 #113
TOL allowed	2.5 #5	3.4 #5	5.8 #5	1.5 #1	5.7 #47	7.2 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.