Wake Forest vs Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Duke's Mayo Bowl, 2025)

Fri, Jan 2, 2026, 8:00 PM ESTDuke's Mayo Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff54°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

8-4 · Power #53

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

5-7 · Power #56

final

Closing spread

MSST -3

✓ WAKE W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 24–27 MSST

✗ MSST (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMSST -3

CloseMSST -3

Total56.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSST -3

no move

CloseMSST -3

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

▼ 4

Close52.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSST -3 · unchangedmodel MSST -2

model MSST -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 48%, covered 44% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMSST -3

CloseMSST -3

Total56.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSST as a 3-point neutral-site favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WAKE won 43–29 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 52.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 3.6; 49.8 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GT vs VAN 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	27–35	L	O49
Very close	TTU vs CAL 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	34–14	W	U55.5
Very close	WAKE vs MIZ 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.75	27–17	W	U58.75
Very close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	HOU vs UL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-5.25	23–16	W	U56.5
Close	UNC vs CONN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-2	14–27	L	U53.5
Close	AUB vs MD 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-4	13–31	L	U48.5
Close	GASO vs OHIO 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	21–41	L	O48.5
Close	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5	45–38	W	O50.5
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	29–6	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WAKE LWWWL	8-4	67%	—	4-3
MSST WWLLL	7-4	64%	—	2-0

Venue/role: WAKE neutral, as underdog; MSST neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UUOOO	7-5	58%	8-4
MSST OOOOU	6-6	50%	5-7

Went over in Q4. Of 640 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
MSST	3-7 30%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE−4.6 →+2.7▲ 7.3#59

MSST+0.7 →+4.7▲ 4.0#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

WAKE

Longer bar = better

MSST

#83

Offense

Even

#70

#17

Defense

◀ WAKE better

#100

−0.4 #106

Turnovers

MSST better ▶

+0.2 #58

66 plays #76

Pace

MSST faster ▶

72 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Even matchup

	WAKE off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #73	29.2 #98	WAKE
Yards / play	5.90 #46	5.90 #98	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.15 #101	Even
Success rate	38% #116	44% #104	Even

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: WAKE defense

	MSST off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #41	21.5 #40	Even
Yards / play	5.50 #82	4.52 #8	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.08 #83	−0.05 #10	WAKE
Success rate	42% #73	35% #9	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	7.3 #31	9.7 #41	17.0 #29	5.8 #71	3.6 #131	9.3 #116
MSST allowed	4.8 #50	8.0 #79	12.8 #70	5.3 #67	10.0 #131	15.3 #122

MSST scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	9.2 #8	5.1 #119	14.3 #71	7.5 #32	8.8 #24	16.3 #22
WAKE allowed	3.9 #38	4.7 #11	8.6 #12	6.1 #88	6.3 #59	12.3 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.