Miami vs Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Vrbo Fiesta Bowl · CFP Semifinal, 2025)

Thu, Jan 8, 2026, 7:30 PM ESTVrbo Fiesta Bowl · CFP Semifinal · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Miami

12-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Ole Miss

13-1 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

MIA -3

✓ MIA W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 30–27 MISS

✓ MIA (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -3

CloseMIA -3

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -3

no move

CloseMIA -3

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▲ 1

Close52.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -3 · unchangedmodel MIA -2.5

model MIA -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 48%, covered 44% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -3

CloseMIA -3

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 3-point neutral-site favorite against MISS, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MIA won 31–27; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.1 against an average line of 3.8; 50.5 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs PSU 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	45–37	W	O51.5
Very close	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5
Very close	UGA vs ALA 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	28–7	W	U48.5
Very close	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	19–22	L	U51
Very close	MICH vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	34–13	W	U55.5
Very close	OSU vs ORE 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	41–21	W	O55.5
Close	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-4	3–14	L	U51
Close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Close	OSU vs TEX 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	28–14	W	U51.5
Close	PSU vs MISS 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	25–38	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MIA WLWWW	9-5	64%	1-0	6-5
MISS LLWWW	9-5	64%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: MIA neutral, as favorite; MISS neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOUUU	5-9	36%	12-2
MISS UOUUO	7-7	50%	13-1

Went over in Q4. Of 641 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
MISS	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+18.0 →+20.4▲ 2.4#7

MISS+19.8 →+18.2▼ 1.6#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

MIA

Longer bar = better

MISS

#27

Offense

MISS better ▶

#13

Defense

◀ MIA better

#44

+0.9 #11

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

0.0 #73

66 plays #82

Pace

MISS faster ▶

74 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #30	20.4 #30	Even
Yards / play	6.17 #30	5.24 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #29	+0.06 #56	MIA
Success rate	47% #19	40% #49	MIA

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #10	13.1 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.69 #16	4.57 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #12	−0.07 #8	Even
Success rate	48% #15	36% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	5.4 #79	9.8 #36	15.2 #56	8.6 #11	7.9 #43	16.4 #20
MISS allowed	3.9 #39	7.5 #69	11.4 #47	3.9 #32	5.0 #28	8.9 #21

MISS scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	8.5 #18	12.1 #7	20.6 #9	6.3 #58	10.8 #5	17.1 #13
MIA allowed	2.1 #4	1.9 #1	4.1 #1	2.6 #8	5.9 #53	8.6 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.