Oregon vs Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl · CFP Semifinal, 2025)

Fri, Jan 9, 2026, 7:30 PM ESTChick-fil-A Peach Bowl · CFP Semifinal · Neutral site

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Oregon

13-1 · Power #4

final

Final

Indiana

14-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -3

✓ IU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 78 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 26–29 IU

✓ IU (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -4

CloseIU -3

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -4

1 → ORE

CloseIU -3

1 pt toward Oregon

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -4 · closed IU -3 · moved 1 toward OREmodel IU -2

model IU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 49%, covered 45% (59 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (323 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -4

CloseIU -3

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 3-point neutral-site favorite against ORE, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 56–22; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 78 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 3.9; 52.9 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs PSU 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	45–37	W	O51.5
Very close	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	19–22	L	U51
Very close	OSU vs ORE 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	41–21	W	O55.5
Close	UGA vs ALA 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	28–7	W	U48.5
Close	OSU vs TEX 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	28–14	W	U51.5
Close	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-2	27–20	W	O46
Close	MICH vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-5	34–13	W	U55.5
Close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Close	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5
Close	OSU vs ND 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & team ratings	-8.5	34–23	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ORE WWWLW	8-6	57%	1-0	2-0
IU LLWWW	8-5	62%	2-0	6-5

Venue/role: ORE neutral, as underdog; IU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE OOUOU	7-7	50%	13-1
IU OUOUU	8-6	57%	14-0

Went over in Q3. Of 655 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
IU	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ORE 0–1 IU IU leads · 1 game since 2023 · IU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	Indiana 30 @ Oregon 20	ORE -7.5	IU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+21.3 →+25.4▲ 4.1#3

IU+13.4 →+27.0▲ 13.6#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ORE

Longer bar = better

#10

Offense

Even

Defense

Even

+0.6 #18

Turnovers

IU better ▶

+1.3 #2

66 plays #82

Pace

IU faster ▶

67 plays #68

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Even matchup

	ORE off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #9	10.3 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.95 #8	4.53 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #8	−0.08 #5	Even
Success rate	49% #13	35% #7	Even

When IU has the ball

Even matchup

	IU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	41.6 #3	15.1 #6	Even
Yards / play	7.02 #5	4.29 #5	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #7	−0.05 #9	Even
Success rate	53% #1	36% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	8.6 #14	12.8 #2	21.4 #5	10.1 #5	5.6 #103	15.6 #26
IU allowed	2.9 #14	3.3 #5	6.1 #6	1.6 #1	2.6 #2	4.1 #1

IU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	8.9 #8	12.1 #5	21.1 #7	12.4 #1	8.1 #40	20.6 #3
ORE allowed	2.1 #5	3.0 #3	5.1 #4	2.7 #9	6.8 #68	9.5 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.