Miami vs Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (CFP National Championship, 2025)

Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 7:30 PM ESTCFP National Championship · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff58°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Miami

13-2 · Power #6

final

Final

Indiana

15-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -7.5

✓ MIA W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 21–28 IU

✓ IU (70%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -7.5

CloseIU -7.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -7.5

no move

CloseIU -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -7.5 · unchangedmodel IU -7

model IU -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 42% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -7.5

CloseIU -7.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 7.5-point neutral-site favorite against MIA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 27–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 5.7; 52.1 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OSU vs ND 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	34–23	W	O45.5
Very close	OSU vs TEX 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	28–14	W	U51.5
Close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Close	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-2	27–20	W	O46
Close	TTU vs BYU 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & total	-12.5	34–7	W	U50.5
Close	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation	-4	3–14	L	U51
Close	MICH vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-5	34–13	W	U55.5
Close	ORE vs PSU 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar team ratings	-3.5	45–37	W	O51.5
Close	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-8	45–51	L	O56
Close	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar team ratings	-3	19–22	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MIA LWWWW	10-5	67%	2-0	3-0
IU LWWWW	9-5	64%	3-0	7-5

Venue/role: MIA neutral, as underdog; IU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUUO	6-9	40%	13-2
IU UOUUO	9-6	60%	15-0

Went over in Q4. Of 558 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
IU	10-0 100%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 1–2 IU IU leads · 3 games since 1964 · IU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+18.0 →+20.4▲ 2.4#7

IU+13.4 →+27.0▲ 13.6#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

MIA

Longer bar = better

#29

Offense

IU better ▶

#12

Defense

Even

+0.7 #13

Turnovers

Even

+1.4 #1

67 plays #59

Pace

◀ MIA faster

66 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	MIA off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #30	11.1 #2	IU
Yards / play	6.08 #35	4.62 #10	IU
PPA / play	+0.19 #29	−0.09 #5	IU
Success rate	47% #21	34% #6	Even

When IU has the ball

Even matchup

	IU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	42.6 #2	14.0 #5	Even
Yards / play	6.96 #7	4.70 #14	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #5	−0.05 #12	Even
Success rate	52% #1	37% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	5.3 #84	10.1 #33	15.3 #53	8.0 #20	8.3 #34	16.3 #21
IU allowed	3.1 #19	3.1 #3	6.2 #5	2.0 #2	2.9 #4	4.9 #1

IU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	9.3 #7	12.7 #3	22.0 #5	12.1 #1	8.5 #30	20.6 #3
MIA allowed	2.0 #3	2.7 #1	4.7 #3	2.7 #8	6.3 #58	8.9 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.