Nebraska vs Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl, 2025)

Wed, Dec 31, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTSRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl · Neutral site

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Nebraska

7-5 · Power #45

final

Final

Utah

10-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -13.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

NEB 20–33 UTAH

✓ UTAH (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTAH -13.5

CloseUTAH -13.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -13.5

no move

CloseUTAH -13.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -13.5 · unchangedmodel UTAH -13.5 matches the line

model UTAH -13.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTAH -13.5

CloseUTAH -13.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 13.5-point neutral-site favorite against NEB, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 44–22; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 51.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.8 against an average line of 12.6; 61.4 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX vs OKST 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & situation	-14.5	49–21	W	O56.5
Very close	TEX vs ASU 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	39–31	L	O52.5
Very close	MICH vs PUR 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & situation	-15.75	43–22	W	O54
Close	UGA vs FLA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total	-14.5	34–20	L	O52.5
Close	TTU vs BYU 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total	-12.5	34–7	W	U50.5
Close	PSU vs BOIS 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-12	31–14	W	U54.5
Close	SC vs ILL 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-9.5	17–21	L	U50
Close	LSU vs WIS 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-9.5	35–31	L	O58.5
Close	UGA vs LSU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-17	50–30	W	O52
Close	KSU vs RUTG 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-7.25	44–41	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NEB LWWLL	4-8	33%	0-1	2-3
UTAH WWWLP	8-3-1	73%	—	8-3-1

Venue/role: NEB neutral, as underdog; UTAH neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB OUOOO	9-3	75%	7-5
UTAH OOOOU	8-4	67%	10-2

Went over in Q3. Of 675 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	8-2 80%
UTAH	8-2 80%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+8.3 →+6.3▼ 2.0#44

UTAH+4.1 →+18.5▲ 14.4#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

NEB

Longer bar = better

UTAH

#49

Offense

UTAH better ▶

#11

#63

Defense

UTAH better ▶

#31

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

UTAH better ▶

+0.4 #36

64 plays #107

Pace

UTAH faster ▶

73 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Even matchup

	NEB off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #54	18.7 #16	UTAH
Yards / play	5.86 #49	5.36 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #71	+0.01 #27	UTAH
Success rate	47% #21	39% #30	Even

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: UTAH offense

	UTAH off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	41.1 #5	23.0 #53	UTAH
Yards / play	6.59 #19	5.27 #45	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.31 #4	+0.13 #82	UTAH
Success rate	49% #14	42% #73	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	6.8 #41	10.4 #24	17.2 #29	5.8 #70	6.3 #82	12.1 #76
UTAH allowed	2.3 #4	5.9 #34	8.2 #10	3.4 #22	7.1 #79	10.5 #47

UTAH scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	8.8 #15	11.7 #13	20.5 #9	8.7 #11	11.9 #1	20.6 #3
NEB allowed	2.8 #13	7.0 #59	9.8 #21	8.1 #125	5.2 #33	13.3 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.