Tennessee vs Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl, 2025)

Tue, Dec 30, 2025, 5:30 PM ESTLiberty Mutual Music City Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff33°F4 mphgusts 14DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tennessee

8-4 · Power #22

final

Final

Illinois

8-4 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -3

✓ ILL W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 33–29 ILL

✗ TENN (60%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTENN -6.5

CloseTENN -3

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -6.5

3.5 → ILL

CloseTENN -3

3.5 pts toward Illinois

Total

Open61.5

no move

Close61.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -6.5 · closed TENN -3 · moved 3.5 toward ILLmodel TENN -6

model TENN -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 48%, covered 45% (52 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (52 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTENN -6.5

CloseTENN -3

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 3-point neutral-site favorite against ILL, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 30–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 58 points stayed under 61.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 3.4; 58.6 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TEX vs WASH 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–27	L	U67
Close	LOU vs USC 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	28–42	L	O57.25
Close	WAKE vs MIZ 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form	-2.75	27–17	W	U58.75
Close	TEX vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	31–37	L	O61.5
Close	UVA vs DUKE 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	20–27	L	U58.5
Close	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5
Loose	ARK vs KU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & situation	-1.5	55–53	W	O70.5
Loose	UNC vs CONN 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-2	14–27	L	U53.5
Loose	CLEM vs UNC 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7.25	39–10	W	U64
Loose	KSU vs NCSU 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-3.5	28–19	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TENN WLLWL	5-7	42%	1-0	4-6
ILL LWWLP	7-4-1	64%	—	1-3

Venue/role: TENN neutral, as favorite; ILL neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN OOUUO	8-4	67%	8-4
ILL OUUUU	5-7	42%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 45% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
ILL	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+17.7 →+14.0▼ 3.7#19

ILL+4.1 →+8.4▲ 4.3#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

TENN

Longer bar = better

ILL

Offense

◀ TENN better

#41

#82

Defense

Even

#81

+0.4 #37

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #47

73 plays #10

Pace

◀ TENN faster

63 plays #115

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	40.8 #6	23.3 #56	TENN
Yards / play	6.59 #19	5.32 #48	TENN
PPA / play	+0.31 #5	+0.16 #103	TENN
Success rate	51% #5	45% #115	TENN

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #53	28.8 #93	ILL
Yards / play	5.87 #49	5.54 #64	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #44	+0.09 #70	ILL
Success rate	47% #19	44% #99	ILL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	13.8 #1	11.3 #18	25.1 #1	8.6 #12	6.3 #81	14.8 #35
ILL allowed	5.7 #79	6.4 #42	12.1 #64	4.6 #45	6.6 #67	11.2 #53

ILL scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	4.6 #100	10.6 #23	15.2 #57	7.7 #29	6.5 #73	14.2 #43
TENN allowed	4.3 #44	9.3 #102	13.6 #81	5.8 #78	8.9 #120	14.7 #109

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.