Texas A&M @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Fri, Nov 28, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F11 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Texas A&M

11-0 · Power #10

final

Final

Texas

8-3 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -2.5

✓ TEX W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 26–24 TEX

✗ TA&M (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTA&M -1.5

CloseTA&M -2.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -1.5

1 → TA&M

CloseTA&M -2.5

1 pt toward Texas A&M

Total

Open52.5

▲ 2

Close54.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -1.5 · closed TA&M -2.5 · moved 1 toward TA&Mmodel TA&M -3.5

model TA&M -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (234 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (265 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTA&M -1.5

CloseTA&M -2.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 2.5-point road favorite at TEX, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 27–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 3; 53.7 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	29–28	L	U58
Very close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Very close	MISS @ TA&M 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	31–28	P	O55.25
Very close	USC @ WASH 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2	21–26	L	U55
Very close	BYU @ CIN 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	26–14	W	U56.5
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	28–16	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M LWWLL	5-6	45%	3-1	4-6
TEX LLLLW	3-8	27%	2-3	0-2

Venue/role: TA&M away, as favorite; TEX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M OOOOU	8-3	73%	11-0
TEX UOOUO	5-6	45%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	10-0 100%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
TEX	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TA&M 0–1 TEX TEX leads · 1 game since 2023 · TEX has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Texas 17 @ Texas A&M 7	TEX -4.5	TEX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+14.3 →+20.0▲ 5.7#8

TEX+23.2 →+14.6▼ 8.6#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

TA&M

Longer bar = better

TEX

#16

Offense

◀ TA&M better

#69

#35

Defense

Even

#33

−0.5 #110

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+0.9 #12

70 plays #36

Pace

◀ TA&M faster

65 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	38.1 #10	20.0 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.69 #18	4.94 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #16	+0.02 #31	Even
Success rate	48% #19	40% #48	TA&M

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	TEX off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #50	21.5 #39	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #56	4.94 #29	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.12 #69	+0.07 #61	Even
Success rate	40% #100	34% #10	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.8 #18	9.6 #48	18.5 #23	10.0 #8	9.6 #14	19.6 #6
TEX allowed	3.0 #19	7.0 #60	10.0 #31	2.1 #5	7.9 #104	10.0 #40

TEX scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	6.9 #41	7.2 #89	14.1 #73	8.3 #22	6.5 #71	14.8 #38
TA&M allowed	6.1 #87	5.5 #24	11.6 #53	3.5 #24	6.3 #62	9.8 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.