Wisconsin @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff23°F10 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Wisconsin

4-7 · Power #63

final

Final

Minnesota

6-5 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

WIS -2.5

✓ MINN W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 20–18 MINN

✗ WIS (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -2.5

CloseWIS -2.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -2.5

5 → WIS

CloseWIS -2.5

5 pts toward Wisconsin

Total

Open38.5

no move

Close38.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -2.5 · closed WIS -2.5 · moved 5 toward WISmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (240 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (154 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -2.5

CloseWIS -2.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as a 2.5-point road favorite at MINN, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MINN won 17–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 38.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 2.3; 51 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 7 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–21	L	U45
Close	UK @ FLA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–48	L	O42.5
Close	M-OH @ BUFF 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	37–20	W	O38.5
Close	PUR @ NEB 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-1	14–31	L	O39.5
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Close	SC @ OU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-1	35–9	W	O40.5
Close	MINN @ WIS 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	24–7	W	U40.5
Close	SJSU @ WYO 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	33–16	W	O42.5
Close	OU @ MIZ 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	23–30	L	O42
Close	USA @ TROY 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	24–31	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LWWWW	6-5	55%	3-1	1-2
MINN WLLLW	2-8	20%	1-4	2-3

Venue/role: WIS away, as favorite; MINN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS UUUUU	2-9	18%	4-7
MINN UOUOO	7-4	64%	6-5

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 62% of games with totals 34.5–42.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
MINN	5-5 50%	2-7 22%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WIS 1–1 MINN Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · MINN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2024	Minnesota 24 @ Wisconsin 7	MINN -1.5	MINN W
Nov 25 2023	Wisconsin 28 @ Minnesota 14	WIS -3	WIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+5.3 →+2.0▼ 3.3#61

MINN+8.6 →−0.5▼ 9.1#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

WIS

Longer bar = better

MINN

#134

Offense

MINN better ▶

#95

#82

Defense

◀ WIS better

#99

−0.7 #122

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+0.4 #40

58 plays #136

Pace

Even

60 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	WIS off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	13.4 #136	24.9 #71	MINN
Yards / play	4.33 #136	5.71 #80	MINN
PPA / play	−0.07 #133	+0.20 #119	Even
Success rate	35% #130	46% #125	Even

When MINN has the ball

Even matchup

	MINN off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #96	22.0 #46	WIS
Yards / play	5.07 #113	5.55 #68	WIS
PPA / play	+0.10 #77	+0.14 #91	Even
Success rate	41% #94	46% #123	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	1.5 #135	2.5 #136	4.0 #136	4.4 #103	5.0 #115	9.4 #116
MINN allowed	6.5 #94	7.1 #59	13.6 #82	5.1 #59	5.9 #53	11.0 #50

MINN scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	4.1 #110	9.5 #51	13.6 #79	4.6 #96	5.0 #115	9.6 #114
WIS allowed	5.9 #84	6.4 #42	12.3 #62	5.6 #71	4.1 #17	9.7 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.