Kentucky @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Auburn · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F0 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

2-5 · Power #52

▲ winner

Final

Auburn

4-4 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

AUB -11.5

✓ UK W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 13 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 17–29 AUB

✗ AUB (80%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -10.5

CloseAUB -11.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAUB -10.5

1 → AUB

CloseAUB -11.5

1 pt toward Auburn

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AUB -10.5 · closed AUB -11.5 · moved 1 toward AUBmodel AUB -12.5

model AUB -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 39% (105 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (226 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -10.5

CloseAUB -11.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AUB as an 11.5-point home favorite against UK, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 10–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 13 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 11.6; 47.7 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSST vs AUB 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-12.5	39–33	L	O50.5
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	UCF vs UTAH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	14–28	L	U46.5
Very close	WIS vs NU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12	10–24	L	U43.5
Very close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	23–24	L	O46
Very close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	BYU vs HOU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12	30–18	P	O40.5
Very close	PITT vs VT 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	45–29	W	O42
Very close	TULN vs ARMY 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-10	24–17	L	U44.5
Close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-14	31–0	W	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK LLLWL	2-5	29%	0-2	2-3
AUB LWLLW	3-5	38%	0-4	0-2

Venue/role: UK away, as underdog; AUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK OOUUO	4-3	57%	2-5
AUB UUUUO	2-6	25%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
AUB	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UK 0–1 AUB AUB leads · 1 game since 2023 · AUB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Auburn 24 @ Kentucky 10	UK -1.5	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.2 →+3.9▼ 1.3#54

AUB+11.0 →+12.6▲ 1.6#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

AUB

#100

Offense

Even

#88

#96

Defense

AUB better ▶

#26

−0.7 #119

Turnovers

AUB better ▶

+0.9 #17

69 plays #38

Pace

◀ UK faster

67 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Advantage: AUB defense

	UK off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #94	18.6 #21	AUB
Yards / play	5.20 #104	4.92 #28	AUB
PPA / play	+0.04 #113	+0.02 #31	AUB
Success rate	42% #88	37% #23	AUB

When AUB has the ball

Even matchup

	AUB off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #90	30.1 #110	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #107	5.83 #98	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #89	+0.13 #91	Even
Success rate	43% #65	43% #84	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UK scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	6.4 #66	6.3 #105	12.7 #93	4.1 #112	7.3 #60	11.4 #90
AUB allowed	2.4 #14	7.1 #72	9.5 #30	4.0 #37	4.4 #25	8.4 #21

AUB scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.5 #64	6.8 #99	13.3 #87	4.6 #98	6.9 #68	11.5 #87
UK allowed	6.4 #94	11.6 #129	18.0 #124	5.9 #80	5.9 #54	11.7 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.