Florida @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida

3-5 · Power #37

final

Final

Kentucky

3-5 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

FLA -5.5

✓ UK W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 25–20 UK

✗ FLA (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -4.5

CloseFLA -5.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFLA -4.5

1 → FLA

CloseFLA -5.5

1 pt toward Florida

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FLA -4.5 · closed FLA -5.5 · moved 1 toward FLAmodel FLA -4.5

model FLA -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 48% (141 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (240 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -4.5

CloseFLA -5.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FLA as a 5.5-point road favorite at UK, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 38–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 5; 41.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Very close	IOWA @ UCLA 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-6.5	17–20	L	U45
Very close	WIS @ MINN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.25	28–14	W	U44
Very close	ISU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	31–28	L	O42.5
Very close	ISU @ BYU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	45–13	W	O41.5
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Very close	UK @ MSST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–3	W	U44.5
Very close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	6–20	L	U44
Very close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Very close	ISU @ OKST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.75	14–20	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA LWLLW	3-5	38%	0-3	1-2
UK LLWLW	3-5	38%	2-3	3-3

Venue/role: FLA away, as favorite; UK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA UOOUU	2-6	25%	3-5
UK OUUOU	4-4	50%	3-5

Went over in Q4. Of 382 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
UK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

FLA 54–22 UK FLA leads · 76 games since 1917 · UK has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Kentucky 20 @ Florida 48	UK -2.5	FLA W
Sep 30 2023	Florida 14 @ Kentucky 33	UK -1	UK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+13.1 →+11.8▼ 1.3#25

UK+5.2 →+4.8▼ 0.4#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

FLA

Longer bar = better

#96

Offense

Even

#109

#45

Defense

◀ FLA better

#74

−0.3 #93

Turnovers

◀ FLA better

−0.6 #117

65 plays #98

Pace

UK faster ▶

68 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: UK defense

	FLA off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #107	26.8 #89	Even
Yards / play	5.46 #89	5.51 #72	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #107	+0.09 #67	UK
Success rate	42% #79	41% #67	Even

When UK has the ball

Advantage: FLA defense

	UK off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #103	20.5 #34	FLA
Yards / play	5.06 #110	5.34 #57	FLA
PPA / play	−0.01 #123	+0.09 #64	FLA
Success rate	41% #98	38% #24	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.1 #46	7.0 #93	14.1 #77	4.6 #102	3.4 #129	8.0 #127
UK allowed	5.6 #74	10.5 #120	16.1 #106	5.1 #63	5.1 #40	10.3 #46

UK scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	5.6 #77	5.9 #111	11.5 #102	4.5 #106	6.4 #77	10.9 #95
FLA allowed	4.4 #47	5.3 #24	9.6 #28	4.1 #40	6.8 #76	10.9 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.