LSU @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F2 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

LSU

5-3 · Power #31

final

Final

Alabama

7-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -10.5

✓ ALA W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

LSU 20–31 ALA

✓ ALA (79%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -10.5

CloseALA -10.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -10.5

no move

CloseALA -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -10.5 · unchangedmodel ALA -13.5

model ALA -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 41% (131 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -10.5

CloseALA -10.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 10.5-point home favorite against LSU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 20–9; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 10.8; 51.5 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU vs SC 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	20–10	W	U44.5
Close	TEX vs CLEM 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	38–24	W	O49.5
Close	PSU vs SMU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	38–10	W	U52.5
Close	ALA vs AUB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & total	-11	28–14	W	U51
Close	MSST vs AUB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-12.5	39–33	L	O50.5
Close	USC vs WIS 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-13.5	38–21	W	O50
Close	USC vs NEB 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	28–20	W	U50.5
Close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Close	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25
Close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU LLWLL	3-5	38%	1-2	1-3
ALA WWLWL	5-3	63%	4-0	4-3

Venue/role: LSU away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU OUUOO	3-5	38%	5-3
ALA UUOUO	5-3	63%	7-1

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ALA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LSU 0–2 ALA ALA leads · 2 games since 2023 · ALA has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Alabama 42 @ LSU 13	ALA -2.5	ALA W
Nov 4 2023	LSU 28 @ Alabama 42	ALA -3	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU+15.7 →+12.1▼ 3.6#24

ALA+21.0 →+21.9▲ 0.9#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

LSU

Longer bar = better

ALA

#74

Offense

ALA better ▶

#31

#38

Defense

Even

#45

+0.5 #32

Turnovers

ALA better ▶

+1.1 #5

64 plays #109

Pace

ALA faster ▶

68 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	LSU off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #84	18.3 #15	ALA
Yards / play	5.59 #75	5.27 #52	ALA
PPA / play	+0.14 #61	+0.05 #46	Even
Success rate	42% #77	41% #65	Even

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.4 #27	18.9 #17	Even
Yards / play	6.07 #45	5.03 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #19	+0.03 #40	ALA
Success rate	46% #32	41% #64	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	4.3 #105	9.4 #56	13.6 #82	6.1 #68	5.8 #90	11.9 #85
ALA allowed	3.0 #23	5.5 #30	8.5 #16	5.4 #72	4.4 #24	9.8 #40

ALA scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	7.9 #28	12.4 #11	20.3 #16	5.4 #83	8.8 #30	14.1 #53
LSU allowed	4.6 #51	4.8 #13	9.4 #26	5.6 #76	3.9 #14	9.5 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.