Georgia @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Georgia

7-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

5-4 · Power #56

final

Closing spread

UGA -9.5

✓ UGA W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 33–23 MSST

✓ UGA (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -8.5

CloseUGA -9.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -8.5

1 → UGA

CloseUGA -9.5

1 pt toward Georgia

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -8.5 · closed UGA -9.5 · moved 1 toward UGAmodel UGA -11

model UGA -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 47% (76 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (229 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -8.5

CloseUGA -9.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 9.5-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 41–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.9 against an average line of 8.3; 58.9 points a game (usually 54). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5
Very close	TEX @ KU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9	55–14	W	O63.5
Very close	CLEM @ PITT 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12	24–20	L	U52
Very close	USC @ MD 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	28–29	L	O56
Very close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	24–20	L	U54
Very close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	31–27	L	O54
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-8	48–31	W	O54.5
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Very close	TA&M @ ARK 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	45–42	L	O57.5
Very close	UGA @ TENN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9	38–10	W	U59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UGA LWWWL	3-5	38%	1-1	3-5
MSST WLWWW	7-1	88%	4-0	5-1

Venue/role: UGA away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA UUUOU	3-5	38%	7-1
MSST OUUOO	4-5	44%	5-4

Went over in Q4. Of 490 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
MSST	5-5 50%	8-1 89%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UGA 1–0 MSST UGA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UGA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Mississippi State 31 @ Georgia 41	UGA -34.5	MSST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+21.0 →+20.1▼ 0.9#6

MSST+0.7 →+7.5▲ 6.8#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UGA

Longer bar = better

MSST

#37

Offense

◀ UGA better

#56

#40

Defense

◀ UGA better

#75

−0.3 #93

Turnovers

MSST better ▶

+0.4 #39

73 plays #19

Pace

Even

71 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #43	24.7 #74	UGA
Yards / play	5.79 #62	5.35 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #27	+0.10 #77	UGA
Success rate	49% #15	43% #86	UGA

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #37	19.6 #26	Even
Yards / play	5.77 #64	4.98 #29	UGA
PPA / play	+0.14 #61	+0.07 #57	Even
Success rate	44% #63	40% #48	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	6.5 #64	8.9 #65	15.4 #65	9.4 #12	7.0 #62	16.4 #30
MSST allowed	2.9 #20	6.8 #60	9.7 #33	3.6 #28	9.9 #132	13.4 #98

MSST scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	9.6 #10	6.4 #103	16.0 #57	7.3 #42	9.9 #16	17.2 #18
UGA allowed	6.5 #96	5.5 #29	12.0 #59	3.9 #32	3.4 #10	7.3 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.