Tennessee @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee

5-2 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Kentucky

2-4 · Power #52

final

Closing spread

TENN -7.5

✓ TENN W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 90 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 32–24 UK

✓ TENN (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -8.5

CloseTENN -7.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -8.5

1 → UK

CloseTENN -7.5

1 pt toward Kentucky

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -8.5 · closed TENN -7.5 · moved 1 toward UKmodel TENN -8.5

model TENN -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 51% (127 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (254 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -8.5

CloseTENN -7.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 7.5-point road favorite at UK, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 56–34; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 90 points went over 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 6.5; 52.6 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU @ ISU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	14–27	L	U52.5
Very close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Very close	USC @ UCLA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	19–13	W	U52.5
Very close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-7	31–27	L	O54
Very close	USC @ MD 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	28–29	L	O56
Very close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Very close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Very close	WIS @ PUR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	38–17	W	O54
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	ASU @ ARIZ 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	49–7	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN WLLLL	3-4	43%	0-2	2-3
UK WLLLW	2-4	33%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: TENN away, as favorite; UK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN OOOUU	5-2	71%	5-2
UK OOOUU	3-3	50%	2-4

Went over in Q2. Of 516 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
UK	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TENN 2–0 UK TENN leads · 2 games since 2023 · TENN has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Kentucky 18 @ Tennessee 28	TENN -17.5	UK W
Oct 28 2023	Tennessee 33 @ Kentucky 27	TENN -4	TENN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+17.7 →+15.2▼ 2.5#16

UK+5.2 →+5.1▼ 0.1#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TENN

Longer bar = better

#10

Offense

◀ TENN better

#109

#83

Defense

UK better ▶

#61

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

◀ TENN better

−0.5 #108

75 plays #6

Pace

◀ TENN faster

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	44.1 #2	25.8 #83	TENN
Yards / play	6.81 #20	5.43 #67	TENN
PPA / play	+0.33 #7	+0.04 #42	TENN
Success rate	51% #9	40% #51	TENN

When UK has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	UK off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #103	30.4 #111	Even
Yards / play	4.97 #119	5.22 #46	TENN
PPA / play	+0.03 #118	+0.10 #69	TENN
Success rate	42% #94	44% #104	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	14.3 #2	11.9 #20	26.1 #2	8.7 #21	7.9 #52	16.6 #29
UK allowed	4.0 #41	11.2 #127	15.2 #101	4.5 #51	5.7 #52	10.2 #43

UK scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	6.3 #70	5.0 #119	11.3 #107	3.8 #118	7.3 #63	11.2 #91
TENN allowed	4.4 #53	10.1 #117	14.6 #91	6.1 #95	8.9 #122	15.0 #119

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.