Oklahoma @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma

6-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee

6-2 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

TENN -2.5

✓ OU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

OU 27–29 TENN

✗ TENN (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -3.5

CloseTENN -2.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -3.5

1 → OU

CloseTENN -2.5

1 pt toward Oklahoma

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -3.5 · closed TENN -2.5 · moved 1 toward OUmodel TENN -4

model TENN -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (281 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (96 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -3.5

CloseTENN -2.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 2.5-point home favorite against OU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: OU won 33–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 2.8; 47 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Very close	ORE vs UTAH 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1	20–17	W	U61.5
Very close	CLEM vs SC 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–17	L	U49
Very close	USC vs ND 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.25	38–27	W	O62.75
Very close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	29–21	W	U51.5
Very close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Very close	VAN vs MIZ 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	17–10	W	U52.5
Very close	TENN vs TA&M 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	20–13	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OU WLLWL	4-4	50%	2-0	0-1
TENN LLLLW	4-4	50%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: OU away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU UUUUO	1-7	13%	6-2
TENN OOUUO	6-2	75%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 507 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
TENN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OU 0–1 TENN TENN leads · 1 game since 2023 · TENN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Tennessee 25 @ Oklahoma 15	TENN -5.5	TENN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+11.4 →+15.2▲ 3.8#16

TENN+17.7 →+16.1▼ 1.6#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

TENN

#72

Offense

TENN better ▶

Defense

◀ OU better

#88

−0.8 #122

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

+0.5 #40

69 plays #46

Pace

TENN faster ▶

73 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Even matchup

	OU off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	28.4 #73	30.9 #115	OU
Yards / play	5.50 #87	5.38 #63	TENN
PPA / play	+0.12 #78	+0.10 #74	Even
Success rate	44% #51	44% #99	OU

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	45.6 #2	12.5 #5	Even
Yards / play	6.99 #12	3.91 #2	Even
PPA / play	+0.37 #5	−0.06 #15	Even
Success rate	52% #9	30% #2	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OU scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	6.4 #67	9.4 #56	15.8 #59	8.9 #18	3.8 #124	12.6 #74
TENN allowed	4.8 #54	10.6 #120	15.4 #96	6.1 #91	8.6 #120	14.8 #114

TENN scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	15.1 #1	12.1 #13	27.3 #1	9.4 #11	7.8 #49	17.1 #20
OU allowed	1.6 #4	4.0 #10	5.6 #6	3.6 #29	3.3 #10	6.9 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.