Baylor @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F10 mphgusts 27Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Baylor

4-2 · Power #50

final

Final

TCU

4-2 · Power #33

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -3.5

✓ TCU W

Total

67.5

▲ Over · 78 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 30–34 TCU

✓ TCU (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -3.5

CloseTCU -3.5

Total67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -3.5

no move

CloseTCU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open67.5

no move

Close67.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -3.5 · unchangedmodel TCU -5

model TCU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (249 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -3.5

CloseTCU -3.5

Total67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 3.5-point home favorite against BAY, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 42–36; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 78 points went over 67.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1 against an average line of 3.7; 55.4 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs SMU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	41–19	W	U65
Very close	OKST vs WVU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	14–38	L	U64.5
Very close	TCU vs TTU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-5	35–34	L	O66
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	BAY vs TCU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	37–34	W	O64
Very close	ECU vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-6	3–42	L	U66.5
Very close	ARIZ vs TTU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-6	22–28	L	U63.5
Very close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5
Very close	UCF vs CIN 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	13–19	L	U58
Close	TULN vs SMU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	59–24	W	O65

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	1-0
TCU LWLLL	2-4	33%	1-2	2-3

Venue/role: BAY away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY OUUOO	4-2	67%	4-2
TCU OUUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 51 earlier overs in games with totals 63.5–71.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
TCU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BAY 1–1 TCU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · BAY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	TCU 34 @ Baylor 37	BAY -2.5	BAY W
Nov 18 2023	Baylor 17 @ TCU 42	TCU -13	TCU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY+6.9 →+6.9–#41

TCU+7.9 →+9.0▲ 1.1#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

BAY

Longer bar = better

TCU

#32

Offense

Even

#36

#94

Defense

TCU better ▶

#73

−0.7 #118

Turnovers

TCU better ▶

+0.2 #62

76 plays #6

Pace

◀ BAY faster

67 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: BAY offense

	BAY off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #28	24.7 #73	BAY
Yards / play	6.54 #30	5.50 #71	BAY
PPA / play	+0.22 #34	+0.15 #98	BAY
Success rate	47% #36	40% #49	Even

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #33	29.7 #114	TCU
Yards / play	6.52 #32	5.59 #82	TCU
PPA / play	+0.24 #31	+0.13 #85	TCU
Success rate	46% #46	43% #94	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	5.0 #90	15.2 #2	20.2 #24	2.8 #128	11.7 #6	14.5 #50
TCU allowed	1.7 #7	8.2 #90	9.8 #39	6.7 #106	8.2 #109	14.8 #119

TCU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	5.8 #73	10.8 #35	16.7 #54	8.2 #33	10.5 #13	18.7 #14
BAY allowed	6.8 #102	9.0 #100	15.8 #108	6.3 #96	6.3 #69	12.7 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.