Western Kentucky @ Missouri State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Missouri State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

3-1 · Power #94

▲ winner

Final

Missouri State

2-2 · Power #112

final

Closing spread

WKU -3.5

✓ WKU W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 31–27 MOST

✓ WKU (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -5.5

CloseWKU -3.5

Total60.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -5.5

2 → MOST

CloseWKU -3.5

2 pts toward Missouri State

Total

Open60.5

▼ 1

Close59.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -5.5 · closed WKU -3.5 · moved 2 toward MOSTmodel WKU -5

model WKU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (164 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (151 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -5.5

CloseWKU -3.5

Total60.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 3.5-point road favorite at MOST, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 27–22; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 59.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 4.5; 71.8 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5
Very close	UL @ ARST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	17–37	L	U59.5
Very close	LIB @ BUFF 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.75	55–27	W	O54
Very close	TXST @ USM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	50–36	W	O60.5
Very close	MTSU @ LT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–40	L	O63.5
Very close	GASO @ BALL 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	40–3	W	U61
Very close	COLO @ ASU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–24	P	U58.5
Very close	NIU @ BALL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.25	38–44	L	O58.5
Close	USU @ UNM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-4.5	44–41	L	O58.5
Close	WKU @ LT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	35–28	W	O59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WWLW	3-1	75%	0-1	3-0
MOST LWWW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: WKU away, as favorite; MOST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OOOU	3-1	75%	3-1
MOST OUUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 48% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
MOSTlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WKU 6–0 MOST WKU leads · 6 games since 2003 · WKU has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−8.3 →−6.9▲ 1.4#87

MOST−21.0 →−14.3▲ 6.7#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WKU

Longer bar = better

MOST

#59

Offense

◀ WKU better

#91

#63

Defense

◀ WKU better

#120

0.0 #73

Turnovers

◀ WKU better

−0.3 #88

73 plays #20

Pace

◀ WKU faster

63 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: WKU offense

	WKU off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #37	32.8 #121	WKU
Yards / play	6.06 #58	6.39 #123	WKU
PPA / play	+0.15 #73	+0.26 #124	WKU
Success rate	44% #68	45% #113	WKU

When MOST has the ball

Advantage: WKU defense

	MOST off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #104	22.8 #67	WKU
Yards / play	5.70 #77	5.67 #92	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #65	+0.06 #67	Even
Success rate	38% #116	35% #24	WKU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	7.8 #46	10.3 #49	18.0 #48	6.0 #70	13.0 #4	19.0 #17
MOST allowed	3.5 #51	14.8 #135	18.3 #116	6.0 #88	8.5 #111	14.5 #116

MOST scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	8.5 #40	7.0 #96	15.5 #72	4.3 #100	1.8 #131	6.0 #131
WKU allowed	8.3 #113	6.0 #50	14.3 #97	7.8 #118	0.8 #1	8.5 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.