Memphis @ Florida Atlantic: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Florida Atlantic · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F5 mphgusts 12Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Memphis

4-0 · Power #61

▲ winner

Final

Florida Atlantic

1-2 · Power #108

final

Closing spread

MEM -13.5

✓ MEM W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 81 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 36–22 FAU

✓ MEM (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -13.5

CloseMEM -13.5

Total61.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -13.5

no move

CloseMEM -13.5

No change since the open

Total

Open61.5

▲ 1

Close62.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -13.5 · unchangedmodel MEM -14

model MEM -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 47% (64 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -13.5

CloseMEM -13.5

Total61.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 13.5-point road favorite at FAU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 55–26; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 81 points went over 62.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 13; 65 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WAKE @ ODU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.75	27–24	L	U60.5
Close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Close	UNC @ GT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-12	42–46	L	O65
Close	JMU @ GASO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	14–28	L	U58.5
Close	MD @ IU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-11	38–33	L	O63.5
Close	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	24–31	L	U58
Close	MISS @ VAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	52–28	W	O59.5
Close	BOIS @ SJSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-14.5	42–21	W	O62
Close	ARIZ @ STAN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-13	21–20	L	U60
Close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-12	45–31	W	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	3-0
FAU LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	0-2

Venue/role: MEM away, as favorite; FAU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UUUO	1-3	25%	4-0
FAU UOO	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 181 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
FAU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+2.2 →+4.9▲ 2.7#47

FAU−10.0 →−10.5▼ 0.5#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MEM

Longer bar = better

FAU

#39

Offense

◀ MEM better

#96

#45

Defense

◀ MEM better

#86

+0.8 #37

Turnovers

◀ MEM better

−2.7 #137

66 plays #74

Pace

FAU faster ▶

85 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #45	30.3 #114	MEM
Yards / play	6.61 #34	5.26 #65	MEM
PPA / play	+0.25 #33	+0.12 #87	MEM
Success rate	47% #44	41% #79	MEM

When FAU has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	FAU off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #70	16.0 #30	MEM
Yards / play	5.43 #96	5.03 #51	MEM
PPA / play	−0.02 #127	+0.02 #46	MEM
Success rate	41% #92	39% #51	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	9.5 #23	11.3 #38	20.8 #30	8.3 #40	6.8 #73	15.0 #50
FAU allowed	4.7 #72	12.0 #124	16.7 #110	11.3 #136	2.3 #9	13.7 #109

FAU scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	12.0 #12	10.3 #48	22.3 #24	0.0 #136	8.0 #54	8.0 #118
MEM allowed	4.0 #56	9.5 #108	13.5 #90	0.8 #6	1.8 #4	2.5 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.