Tulane @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Tulsa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Tulane

3-1 · Power #57

▲ winner

Final

Tulsa

2-2 · Power #113

final

Closing spread

TULN -14.5

✓ TULN W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 33–18 TLSA

✓ TULN (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -13.5

CloseTULN -14.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -13.5

1 → TULN

CloseTULN -14.5

1 pt toward Tulane

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -13.5 · closed TULN -14.5 · moved 1 toward TULNmodel TULN -15

model TULN -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 53% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (176 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -13.5

CloseTULN -14.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 14.5-point road favorite at TLSA, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 31–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 14.8; 55.9 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT @ ODU 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-15.5	37–17	W	O47.5
Very close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Very close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	55–7	W	O51
Very close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	41–40	L	O51
Close	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-18	37–27	L	O55.5
Close	APP @ TXST 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-19.5	24–36	L	O54.5
Close	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	24–31	L	U58
Close	BGSU @ CMU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & total	-15.5	23–13	L	U48.5
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	BGSU @ BALL 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	38–13	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN WLWL	2-2	50%	0-2	1-1
TLSA WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: TULN away, as favorite; TLSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1
TLSA UUOU	1-3	25%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
TLSA	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TULN 8–13 TLSA TLSA leads · 21 games since 1968 · TULN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Tulsa 22 @ Tulane 24	TULN -24.5	TLSA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+5.1 →+3.4▼ 1.7#55

TLSA−18.6 →−13.0▲ 5.6#119

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TULN

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#83

Offense

◀ TULN better

#99

#94

Defense

TLSA better ▶

#65

+1.5 #11

Turnovers

◀ TULN better

−0.3 #87

69 plays #44

Pace

TLSA faster ▶

77 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Even matchup

	TULN off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #89	20.5 #56	TLSA
Yards / play	5.54 #89	5.09 #54	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.12 #82	+0.04 #58	TLSA
Success rate	44% #73	43% #90	Even

When TLSA has the ball

Even matchup

	TLSA off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #98	26.5 #91	Even
Yards / play	5.32 #104	6.10 #115	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #104	+0.05 #59	TULN
Success rate	41% #90	45% #112	TLSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	8.8 #31	9.0 #64	17.8 #50	3.3 #116	4.0 #117	7.3 #125
TLSA allowed	3.3 #45	3.5 #18	6.8 #23	5.3 #71	8.5 #109	13.8 #108

TLSA scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	7.8 #45	3.0 #133	10.8 #106	5.3 #81	6.8 #73	12.0 #84
TULN allowed	6.8 #99	5.5 #45	12.3 #79	1.8 #14	12.5 #135	14.3 #113

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.