James Madison @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F9 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

James Madison

3-1 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Georgia State

1-3 · Power #125

final

Closing spread

JMU -18.5

✓ GAST W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 21 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 35–17 GAST

✓ JMU (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -19.5

CloseJMU -18.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -19.5

1 → GAST

CloseJMU -18.5

1 pt toward Georgia State

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -19.5 · closed JMU -18.5 · moved 1 toward GASTmodel JMU -18.5 matches the line

model JMU -18.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 16.5–20.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 41% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (212 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -19.5

CloseJMU -18.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as an 18.5-point road favorite at GAST, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 14–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 21 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.4 against an average line of 18.3; 50 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Close	AFA @ HAW 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-20.5	13–27	L	U47.5
Close	TROY @ USM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-17	35–17	W	O48.5
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-17	42–7	W	U52
Close	DUKE @ MTSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form	-14.5	45–17	W	O51
Close	ISU @ ARST 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-21	24–16	L	U55.5
Close	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Close	BOIS @ NEV 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-21	41–3	W	U47.5
Close	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-18	37–27	L	O55.5
Close	MRSH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-17	31–34	L	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	3-0
GAST LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: JMU away, as favorite; GAST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU OUUU	1-3	25%	3-1
GAST OUUO	2-2	50%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 39 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
GAST	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

JMU 6–0 GAST JMU leads · 6 games since 2012 · JMU has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Georgia State 7 @ James Madison 38	JMU -15.5	JMU W
Nov 4 2023	James Madison 42 @ Georgia State 14	JMU -6	JMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU−2.2 →+3.7▲ 5.9#58

GAST−9.1 →−15.2▼ 6.1#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

JMU

Longer bar = better

GAST

#62

Offense

◀ JMU better

#88

#11

Defense

◀ JMU better

#134

−0.3 #92

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

−0.8 #115

73 plays #20

Pace

◀ JMU faster

65 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #60	48.0 #137	JMU
Yards / play	5.64 #80	7.09 #133	JMU
PPA / play	+0.18 #58	+0.31 #132	JMU
Success rate	45% #51	51% #134	JMU

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	GAST off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #116	15.3 #22	JMU
Yards / play	5.40 #97	3.75 #6	JMU
PPA / play	+0.18 #56	−0.11 #12	JMU
Success rate	42% #84	27% #3	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	7.8 #44	8.8 #76	16.5 #59	7.8 #44	7.0 #67	14.8 #56
GAST allowed	8.8 #121	14.0 #135	22.8 #133	11.3 #135	14.0 #136	25.3 #136

GAST scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	6.5 #66	7.3 #96	13.8 #88	3.3 #120	3.3 #125	6.5 #131
JMU allowed	0.8 #7	5.8 #48	6.5 #17	5.3 #73	3.5 #22	8.8 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.