UL Monroe @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Northwestern

Weather at kickoff86°F11 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UL Monroe

3-1 · Power #130

final

Final

Northwestern

2-2 · Power #59

▲ winner

Closing spread

NU -13.5

✓ NU W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 14–27 NU

✓ NU (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNU -10.5

CloseNU -13.5

Total40.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNU -10.5

3 → NU

CloseNU -13.5

3 pts toward Northwestern

Total

Open40.5

▲ 3

Close43.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NU -10.5 · closed NU -13.5 · moved 3 toward NUmodel NU -13.5 matches the line

model NU -13.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 49% (104 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (178 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNU -10.5

CloseNU -13.5

Total40.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NU as a 13.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 42–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.8 against an average line of 13.4; 52.6 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NAVY vs TEM 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	27–20	L	O41.5
Close	WYO vs UNM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	35–26	L	O41
Close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Close	FRES vs SDSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.75	32–28	L	O44.5
Close	CAL vs ORST 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	44–7	W	P51
Close	MSST vs USM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-18.5	41–20	W	O47.5
Close	OHIO vs EMU 2024 · Week 12 · close	-10.5	35–10	W	U51.5
Loose	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Loose	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Loose	TOL vs BALL 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread	-13.5	28–21	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
NU LWWL	2-2	50%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; NU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1
NU UOUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 276 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
NU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−12.3 →−13.0▼ 0.7#117

NU−2.5 →−3.4▼ 0.9#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ULM

Longer bar = better

#83

Offense

◀ ULM better

#98

#65

Defense

Even

#75

0.0 #75

Turnovers

◀ ULM better

−1.5 #135

59 plays #132

Pace

NU faster ▶

63 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #101	19.5 #44	NU
Yards / play	5.83 #70	5.43 #72	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #49	+0.17 #100	ULM
Success rate	39% #113	42% #84	NU

When NU has the ball

Advantage: ULM defense

	NU off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #121	28.5 #105	Even
Yards / play	5.52 #86	5.42 #71	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #129	+0.04 #51	ULM
Success rate	45% #54	38% #33	ULM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	5.3 #90	6.8 #101	12.0 #105	5.3 #86	4.8 #106	10.0 #104
NU allowed	3.5 #49	6.5 #60	10.0 #49	5.0 #71	4.5 #35	9.5 #47

NU scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	5.3 #90	5.3 #116	10.5 #111	1.5 #129	7.0 #67	8.5 #119
ULM allowed	9.5 #126	5.3 #40	14.8 #96	4.0 #47	9.8 #126	13.8 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.