Rice @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at UTSA · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Rice

3-3 · Power #126

final

Final

UTSA

2-3 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -9.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 20–30 UTSA

✓ UTSA (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -12.5

CloseUTSA -9.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTSA -12.5

3 → RICE

CloseUTSA -9.5

3 pts toward Rice

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTSA -12.5 · closed UTSA -9.5 · moved 3 toward RICEmodel UTSA -13

model UTSA -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 44% (115 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (162 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -12.5

CloseUTSA -9.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 9.5-point home favorite against RICE, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 61–13; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 8.1; 45.5 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	35–20	W	O49.5
Very close	WKU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-11	28–23	L	U52.25
Very close	MEM vs RICE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	27–20	P	U50.5
Very close	WKU vs LT 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-11.5	7–12	L	U52.5
Very close	UL vs TROY 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	51–30	W	O51.5
Very close	UL vs USM 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-8.5	31–34	L	O52.5
Very close	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5
Close	TROY vs ULM 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	9–13	L	U46
Close	UCLA vs FRES 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	20–13	L	U46.5
Close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-6	18–34	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE LLWWL	3-3	50%	3-0	2-1
UTSA WLWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: RICE away, as underdog; UTSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE OOOUU	3-3	50%	3-3
UTSA OOOUU	3-2	60%	2-3

Went over in Q3. Of 486 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICE	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UTSA	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

RICE 1–1 UTSA Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · RICE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	UTSA 27 @ Rice 29	UTSA -3.5	RICE W
Nov 11 2023	Rice 14 @ UTSA 34	UTSA -14	UTSA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−9.0 →−12.1▼ 3.1#113

UTSA−2.5 →−3.0▼ 0.5#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

RICE

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#104

Offense

UTSA better ▶

#75

#54

Defense

◀ RICE better

#88

+0.7 #38

Turnovers

◀ RICE better

+0.2 #58

65 plays #89

Pace

UTSA faster ▶

68 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Even matchup

	RICE off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #113	29.6 #108	Even
Yards / play	4.79 #128	5.85 #103	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.09 #96	+0.18 #108	Even
Success rate	42% #79	38% #31	UTSA

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #67	21.5 #60	Even
Yards / play	5.65 #78	5.40 #66	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #57	+0.11 #75	Even
Success rate	41% #96	35% #15	RICE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

RICE scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	3.5 #118	6.8 #97	10.3 #115	4.0 #106	6.2 #85	10.2 #107
UTSA allowed	2.4 #25	6.8 #62	9.2 #34	11.8 #135	8.6 #118	20.4 #134

UTSA scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	4.0 #111	10.4 #40	14.4 #75	8.4 #32	6.4 #78	14.8 #48
RICE allowed	5.7 #83	4.3 #17	10.0 #42	3.8 #45	7.7 #93	11.5 #71

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.