Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Florida Atlantic · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F5 mphgusts 22Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tulsa

2-6 · Power #113

final

Final

Florida Atlantic

3-5 · Power #108

▲ winner

Closing spread

FAU -4.5

✓ FAU W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 28–32 FAU

✓ FAU (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFAU -6.5

CloseFAU -4.5

Total65.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFAU -6.5

2 → TLSA

CloseFAU -4.5

2 pts toward Tulsa

Total

Open65.5

▼ 5

Close60.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FAU -6.5 · closed FAU -4.5 · moved 2 toward TLSAmodel FAU -6.5

model FAU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (207 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (191 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFAU -6.5

CloseFAU -4.5

Total65.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FAU as a 4.5-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: FAU won 40–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 5.3; 55.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	APP vs GAST 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	33–26	L	P59
Close	WMU vs EMU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-6.5	26–18	W	U55.5
Close	FAU vs UAB 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	53–33	W	O66
Close	USA vs UL 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	22–31	L	O52.5
Close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Close	USU vs SDSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-5	41–20	W	O60
Close	GASO vs TROY 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	20–28	L	U53.5
Close	CSU vs UNM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	17–6	W	U61.5
Close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Close	UNT vs LT 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-6.5	47–27	W	O68.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA WLLWW	4-4	50%	2-2	3-3
FAU LWWLW	4-4	50%	2-1	2-0

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; FAU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA UUUOO	3-5	38%	2-6
FAU OUOUO	5-3	63%	3-5

Went over in Q4. Of 269 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
FAU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TLSA 0–2 FAU FAU leads · 2 games since 2023 · FAU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Florida Atlantic 63 @ Tulsa 16	FAU -2.5	FAU W
Oct 7 2023	Tulsa 17 @ Florida Atlantic 20	FAU -4	TLSA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA−18.6 →−14.2▲ 4.4#120

FAU−10.0 →−11.2▼ 1.2#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TLSA

Longer bar = better

FAU

#114

Offense

FAU better ▶

#86

#94

Defense

◀ TLSA better

#115

−0.6 #116

Turnovers

◀ TLSA better

−1.8 #137

75 plays #6

Pace

Even

79 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Even matchup

	TLSA off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #110	36.3 #131	TLSA
Yards / play	5.11 #107	5.96 #104	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #122	+0.19 #113	Even
Success rate	39% #115	45% #110	Even

When FAU has the ball

Even matchup

	FAU off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #55	29.6 #103	FAU
Yards / play	5.38 #95	5.62 #81	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #91	+0.11 #82	Even
Success rate	40% #103	45% #111	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	6.0 #72	5.9 #109	11.9 #100	3.9 #117	5.5 #94	9.4 #115
FAU allowed	6.5 #95	9.8 #109	16.3 #109	9.3 #128	10.8 #133	20.0 #133

FAU scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	11.4 #5	7.9 #76	19.3 #23	4.0 #113	7.0 #61	11.0 #94
TLSA allowed	5.5 #68	9.1 #102	14.6 #89	7.4 #113	6.8 #77	14.1 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.