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NCAAF · 2025 · Week 16

Army vs Navy

Sat, Dec 13, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · Neutral site
Weather at kickoff41°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›
Army
6-5 · Power #83
16
final
Final
vs
Navy
9-2 · Power #64
17
▲ winner
Closing spread
NAVY -6
✓ ARMY W
Total
37.5
▼ Under · 33 pts
Model before kickoff
ARMY 21–27 NAVY
✓ NAVY (67%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenNAVY -4.5
CloseNAVY -6
Total38.5 → 37.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close
Spread
1.5 pts toward Navy
Total
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NAVY -4.5 · closed NAVY -6 · moved 1.5 toward NAVYmodel NAVY -6.5
Opened 38.5 · closed 37.5 · moved 1 downmodel 48.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Neutral-site favorites of 4–8 since 2023: won 60%, covered 38% (40 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (269 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenNAVY -4.5
CloseNAVY -6
Total38.5 → 37.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 6-point neutral-site favorite against ARMY, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 17–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 37.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 65%
Favorite covered
4 of 944%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 5.2; 45.8 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
AFA vs ARMY
2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest
 -713–7 L U40.5
Close
NIU vs FRES
2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form
 -2.528–20 W O40.5
Close
M-OH vs CSU
2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form
 -1.543–17 W O42.5
Close
OHIO vs WYO
2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form
 -330–27 P O43
Close
ILL vs NU
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & season form
 -938–28 W O43.5
Close
ARMY vs NAVY
2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & spread
 -6.513–31 L O39
Close
NAVY vs ARMY
2022 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & situation
 -2.517–20 L O32
Close
USM vs RICE
2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread
 -6.538–24 W O45.5
Close
TROY vs DUKE
2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation
 -6.7510–17 L U44.25
Close
TOL vs M-OH
2023 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & team ratings
 -714–23 L U43.5
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
Slight Navy ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Market moved toward Navy
1.5 pts (NAVY -4.5 → NAVY -6). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution
Loading play-by-play…

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
ARMY−9.7 →−5.5▲ 4.2#87
NAVY+1.2 →+0.2▼ 1.0#66
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15
ARMY
Longer bar = better
NAVY
#100
Offense
NAVY better ▶
#17
#79
Defense
◀ ARMY better
#98
+0.5 #36
Turnovers
◀ ARMY better
+0.1 #68
70 plays #36
Pace
◀ ARMY faster
63 plays #111
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When ARMY has the ball
Even matchup
ARMY offNAVY defEdge
Points / game 23.0 #102 26.9 #83 Even
Yards / play 4.81 #127 6.07 #113 Even
PPA / play +0.08 #84 +0.16 #106 ARMY
Success rate 41% #87 43% #88 Even
When NAVY has the ball
Advantage: NAVY offense
NAVY offARMY defEdge
Points / game 32.5 #31 22.5 #50 Even
Yards / play 6.88 #12 5.70 #83 NAVY
PPA / play +0.28 #14 +0.11 #75 NAVY
Success rate 49% #10 44% #108 NAVY
Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams
ARMY scoring against the NAVY defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
ARMY scored
3.2
#125
8.1
#78
11.3
#103
5.5
#81
5.9
#96
11.5
#91
NAVY allowed
6.5
#98
7.3
#65
13.8
#85
5.4
#69
7.7
#99
13.1
#85
NAVY scoring against the ARMY defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
NAVY scored
6.6
#50
10.6
#24
17.3
#36
6.0
#63
9.2
#22
15.2
#31
ARMY allowed
5.9
#85
4.9
#13
10.8
#40
3.2
#18
7.4
#91
10.5
#47
Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
41° · 3 mph
gusts 8 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ARMY14d bye
NAVY16d bye
NAVY +2 days
Tempo
Average 133 plays
slowavg 134fast

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Army← @ UTSA · vs CONN →
Navy← @ MEM · @ CIN →
ESPN box score ↗