Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at UCLA
Closing spread
UTAH -6.5
✓ UTAH W
Total
48.5
▲ Over · 53 pts
Model before kickoff
UTAH 23–19 UCLA
✓ UTAH (62%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUTAH -5.5
CloseUTAH -6.5
Total52.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUTAH -5.5
1 → UTAH
CloseUTAH -6.5
1 pt toward Utah
Total
Open52.5
▼ 4
Close48.5
Down 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UTAH -5.5 · closed UTAH -6.5 · moved 1 toward UTAHmodel UCLA -4.5
model UCLA -4.5
Opened 52.5 · closed 48.5 · moved 4 downmodel 42
model 42
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 58% (113 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (134 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUTAH -5.5
CloseUTAH -6.5
Total52.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
UTAH as a 6.5-point road favorite at UCLA, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: UTAH won 43–10; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 68%
Favorite covered
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 4.6; 44.1 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-3.5 | 42–13 | W | O46.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-5.5 | 24–3 | W | U44.5 |
| Close |  SJSU @  FRES2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total |
-7 | 10–17 | L | U47 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread |
-6.5 | 19–26 | L | O44.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation |
-3 | 31–13 | W | O43.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread |
-4.5 | 31–21 | W | U55 |
| Close |  PSU @  PUR2022 · Week 1 · close · similar situation |
-3.5 | 35–31 | W | O53.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total |
-3.5 | 43–24 | W | O52 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread |
-5 | 20–9 | W | U49.25 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total |
-3.75 | 29–0 | W | U48 |
IU
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ECU
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ASUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 4
52.5 → 48.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Utah have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 384 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
 UCLA | 4-6 40% | 5-4 56% | 3-6 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
UTAH 1–0 UCLA
UTAH leads · 1 game since 2023 · UTAH has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 2023 | UCLA 7 @ Utah 14 | UTAH -3.5 | UTAH W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
UCLA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
81° · 3 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
UTAH1st game
UCLA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
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