Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Washington
Closing spread
WASH -22.5
✓ CSU W
Total
51.5
▲ Over · 59 pts
Model before kickoff
CSU 15–37 WASH
✓ WASH (94%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenWASH -22.5
CloseWASH -22.5
Total54.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWASH -22.5
no move
CloseWASH -22.5
No change since the open
Total
Open54.5
▼ 3
Close51.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WASH -22.5 · unchangedmodel WASH -19.5
model WASH -19.5
Opened 54.5 · closed 51.5 · moved 3 downmodel 51
model 51
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 21.5–23.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 38% (55 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenWASH -22.5
CloseWASH -22.5
Total54.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
WASH as a 22.5-point home favorite against CSU, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: WASH won 38–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 90%
Favorite covered
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 44%
Went over
6 of 967%
Normal range · usually 50%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 21.6; 56.4 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-21 | 23–19 | L | U47.5 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-21.25 | 38–24 | L | O49.75 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-20.5 | 23–19 | L | U49.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total |
-21.5 | 45–14 | W | O54 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread |
-22 | 27–38 | L | O51.5 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-21.5 | 21–26 | L | P47 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & spread |
-20.5 | 30–20 | L | O48 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-20.5 | 69–10 | W | O55 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total |
-23.5 | 34–16 | L | U53.5 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-24 | 48–20 | W | O47 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 3
54.5 → 51.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Colorado State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 449 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | |
| 4-6 40% | 3-6 33% | 5-4 56% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
67° · 1 mph
gusts 7 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CSU1st game
WASH1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

