Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Washington
Weather at kickoff67°F1 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›
0-0 · Power #116
21
final
Final
@
0-0 · Power #15
38
▲ winner
Closing spread
WASH -22.5
✓ CSU W
Total
51.5
▲ Over · 59 pts
Model before kickoff
CSU 15–37 WASH
✓ WASH (94%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenWASH -22.5
CloseWASH -22.5
Total54.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WASH -22.5 · unchangedmodel WASH -19.5
Opened 54.5 · closed 51.5 · moved 3 downmodel 51
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 21.5–23.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 38% (55 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenWASH -22.5
CloseWASH -22.5
Total54.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 22.5-point home favorite against CSU, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 38–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 90%
Favorite covered
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 44%
Went over
6 of 967%
Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 21.6; 56.4 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & team ratings
-2123–19 L U47.5
Very close
BYU vs WYO
2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread
-21.2538–24 L O49.75
Very close
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings
-20.523–19 L U49.5
Very close
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total
-21.545–14 W O54
Very close
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread
-2227–38 L O51.5
Very close
PITT vs GT
2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & spread
-21.521–26 L P47
Very close
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & spread
-20.530–20 L O48
Very close
2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & spread
-20.569–10 W O55
Very close
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total
-23.534–16 L U53.5
Very close
AFA vs NEV
2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-2448–20 W O47
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Total moved down 3
54.5 → 51.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Colorado State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
WASH +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
67° · 1 mph
gusts 7 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CSU1st game
WASH1st game
Even

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week