Michigan @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F1 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Michigan

2-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Nebraska

3-0 · Power #45

final

Closing spread

MICH -1.5

✓ MICH W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 24–23 NEB

✓ MICH (52%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -2.5

CloseMICH -1.5

Total44.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -2.5

1 → NEB

CloseMICH -1.5

1 pt toward Nebraska

Total

Open44.5

▲ 4

Close48.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -2.5 · closed MICH -1.5 · moved 1 toward NEBmodel NEB -2

model NEB -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 50% (117 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (186 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -2.5

CloseMICH -1.5

Total44.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 1.5-point road favorite at NEB, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 30–27; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 4.3; 53 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	PSU @ USC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	33–30	L	O52
Close	ALA @ TENN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–24	L	U57.5
Loose	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-6	20–33	L	U54
Loose	UGA @ MISS 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2	10–28	L	U55
Loose	CLEM @ SYR 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-7	31–14	W	U53
Loose	UGA @ TENN 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	44–41	L	O50.5
Loose	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	35–38	L	O58.5
Loose	MSST @ UK 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Loose	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	22–31	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
NEB LWW	2-1	67%	2-0	—

Venue/role: MICH away, as favorite; NEB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
NEB UOO	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 437 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
NEB	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MICH 1–0 NEB MICH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MICH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Michigan 45 @ Nebraska 7	MICH -17.5	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+12.2 →+14.3▲ 2.1#17

NEB+8.3 →+13.1▲ 4.8#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MICH

Longer bar = better

NEB

#54

Offense

NEB better ▶

#15

#38

Defense

NEB better ▶

#25

+1.7 #12

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #20

66 plays #67

Pace

NEB faster ▶

73 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	MICH off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #46	8.0 #7	NEB
Yards / play	6.81 #31	3.63 #7	NEB
PPA / play	+0.27 #38	−0.06 #26	Even
Success rate	40% #100	38% #58	NEB

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: NEB offense

	NEB off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	49.0 #9	14.7 #33	NEB
Yards / play	7.50 #14	4.01 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #28	−0.03 #38	Even
Success rate	57% #9	39% #63	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 123 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	9.3 #23	10.3 #44	19.7 #39	10.0 #24	7.0 #58	17.0 #32
NEB allowed	1.0 #11	0.0 #1	1.0 #2	4.7 #63	2.3 #18	7.0 #29

NEB scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	8.7 #37	19.3 #3	28.0 #9	11.7 #7	9.3 #31	21.0 #11
MICH allowed	2.3 #28	6.7 #58	9.0 #47	4.7 #63	1.0 #7	5.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.