Purdue @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff77°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Purdue

2-1 · Power #79

final

Final

Notre Dame

0-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -24.5

✓ ND W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 86 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 12–37 ND

✓ ND (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -26.5

CloseND -24.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -26.5

2 → PUR

CloseND -24.5

2 pts toward Purdue

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -26.5 · closed ND -24.5 · moved 2 toward PURmodel ND -27.5

model ND -27.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–25.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 52% (63 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (140 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -26.5

CloseND -24.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 24.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 56–30; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 86 points went over 51.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20 against an average line of 24.5; 54.4 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CLEM vs FAU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-25	48–14	W	O51.5
Close	FLA vs USF 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-23.5	31–28	L	O58
Close	BYU vs WYO 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-21.25	38–24	L	O49.75
Close	ORE vs MSU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-22.5	31–10	L	U53
Loose	CLEM vs TROY 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-30.25	27–16	L	U51.5
Loose	ARK vs LT 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-23.5	35–14	L	O48.5
Loose	PSU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-28	46–10	W	O55
Loose	COLO vs DEL 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-23.5	31–7	W	U49.5
Loose	ND vs UNLV 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-26	44–21	L	O46.5
Loose	MSST vs WMU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-21	41–28	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR WLW	2-1	67%	—	1-0
ND LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR UUU	0-3	0%	2-1
ND OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Went over in Q2. Of 497 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
ND	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PUR 0–1 ND ND leads · 1 game since 2023 · ND has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Notre Dame 66 @ Purdue 7	ND -7.5	ND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR−8.2 →−4.3▲ 3.9#81

ND+21.6 →+18.6▼ 3.0#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

PUR

Longer bar = better

#64

Offense

◀ PUR better

#79

Defense

◀ PUR better

#113

−1.3 #126

Turnovers

ND better ▶

−1.0 #110

67 plays #59

Pace

◀ PUR faster

65 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: PUR offense

	PUR off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #79	34.0 #120	PUR
Yards / play	5.81 #73	6.04 #109	PUR
PPA / play	+0.17 #66	+0.24 #119	PUR
Success rate	49% #36	45% #104	PUR

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #60	16.7 #42	Even
Yards / play	5.76 #76	5.26 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	+0.16 #101	Even
Success rate	43% #76	43% #100	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 123 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	9.3 #23	6.7 #85	16.0 #59	5.7 #70	5.7 #74	11.3 #80
ND allowed	3.5	17.5	21.0	5.0	8.0	13.0

ND scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	3.5	13.0	16.5
PUR allowed	5.7 #77	4.7 #36	10.3 #53	4.3 #56	2.0 #14	6.3 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.